Overnight Recap

1. SK Hynix mega-IPO priced, set for Friday debut — The South Korean chipmaker priced its U.S. share sale at $149 per ADS, raising approximately $26.5 billion. The listing is the market's most direct stress test of AI appetite after a recent semiconductor pullback. Single-stock ETF filings are already rushing in (MarketWatch, 03:28 ET; Reuters, 01:00 ET).

2. Fed Chairman Warsh announces sweeping policy review — Five independent task forces launched, with heavy-hitter leadership including Marc Andreessen and Walmart CEO Doug McMillon, all with an AI focus. June FOMC minutes revealed a "few" officials argued for a rate hike. NY Fed's Perli reiterated flexibility on Treasury bill purchases (Investing.com, 20:00 ET Jul 9).

3. Japan signals historic pension pivot — Finance minister urges GPIF ($931 billion in foreign assets) to boost domestic investment, reversing the Abe-era capital outflow. Yen rallied; JGB yields moved. The policy shift could reshape cross-border capital flows over quarters, not days (Investing.com, 04:00 ET).

4. Iran tensions keep oil bid, rattle bonds — WTI at $71.88, headed for a weekly gain despite the daily dip. Strait of Hormuz traffic near standstill; the IEA now forecasts the first annual decline in world oil demand since 2020. Mortgage rates jumped as bond investors priced renewed geopolitical risk. Kalshi shows 54% odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 driven partly by energy uncertainty (Reuters, 02:00 ET; MarketWatch, 05:00 ET; CNBC).

5. Apollo launches bidding war for easyJet — A $7.7 billion counterbid tops Castlelake's earlier offer. easyJet shares popped 13% in European trading. The M&A activity adds a corporate catalyst to an otherwise macro-dominated tape (MarketWatch, 02:40 ET).

Previous Session Context

_Context from Wednesday's July 9 session, caught by the freshness guard (content from the prior session's tape, published inside the overnight window):_

• Nasdaq closed +1.30%, S&P 500 +0.81%, Dow +0.27% — A broad advance led by chips: Meta +4.70%, AMD +5.67%, Micron +4.52%, Lumentum +11.13%, HPE +9.94%. Technology sector +1.38%; Energy was the sole notable decliner at -1.39% (Investing.com, ~18:30 ET Jul 9).
• VIX settled at 15.95, barely budging (+0.69%) — the rally was orderly, not a squeeze (Investing.com, market close Jul 9).
• Meta rebounded sharply (+4.70% to $631.48) as agentic AI coding tools and custom chip development eased spending fears. Counterpoint: Apollo's Sløk warned a slower AI payoff risks tipping the economy into recession (MarketWatch, 19:00 ET Jul 9).
• Micron surged ~5% after announcing billions more in U.S. chipmaking investments (MarketWatch, 19:30 ET Jul 9).

Global Equity Movers

Asia (overnight session, July 10):

• Nikkei 225: +1.58% to 68,814 — extending gains, aided by yen-driven exporter optimism
• KOSPI: +2.52% to 7,476 — sharp rebound from bear territory
• Nifty 50: +1.02% to 24,207; Sensex: +1.11%
• Hang Seng: +0.60% to 24,175
• ASX 200: +0.50% to 8,806
• Shanghai Composite: -1.00% to 3,996 — bucked the regional trend on tech regulation fears; Shenzhen Component -2.29%

Europe (early session, 06:09 ET):

• FTSE 100: +0.12% to 10,485
• DAX: +0.05% to 25,117
• CAC 40: +0.08% to 8,334
• Euro STOXX 50: -0.12% to 6,277 — flat; ECB policy uncertainty and Iran risk cap upside

U.S. pre-market single-stock movers:

• SK Hynix (to list on Nasdaq Friday): IPO priced at $149/ADS, $26.5B raised — the marquee event
• easyJet (OTC): +13% in London on Apollo's $7.7B counterbid
• Delta Air Lines (DAL): +2.21% into Q2 earnings before the bell today
• Micron (MU): +4.52% in prior session on U.S. manufacturing push; being watched for follow-through

Rates, FX, and Commodities

Treasuries are bid overnight with a steepening bias — TY1 (10Y) +10 bp from 6:00 PM ET anchor, US1 (long bond) +22 bp, while TU1 (2Y) is essentially flat (+2 bp). The 10-year yield sits at 4.53%, down about 1 bp on the session; the 10Y-2Y spread widened to 31 bp (+15% on the day). The move is consistent with a flight-to-duration bid, not a dovish repricing — the Fed minutes' hawkish lean ("few" officials wanted a June hike) limits the rally's duration tail.

The dollar is marginally softer (DXY 100.66, -0.02%), with the yen strengthening on Japan's pension pivot. Sterling is at a one-month high ($1.3412). The ECB faces a policy reset as renewed US-Iran hostilities threaten the inflation outlook; German June CPI confirmed at 2.4% y/y. Bunds and gilts also caught a bid — DE 10Y at 3.03% (-1.9 bp), UK 10Y at 4.88% (-2.4 bp).

Commodities are uniformly lower overnight: WTI $71.88 (-0.28%), Brent $76.12 (-0.24%), nat gas $2.98 (-0.90%), gold $4,114 (-0.64%), silver $59.90 (-1.40%). Gold's decline is notable against a risk-off tape — the metal just posted its worst quarter since 2013 and is failing to attract haven flows, suggesting the dollar/rates channel is dominating the geopolitical bid. Copper is flat at $6.26/lb. Quiet elsewhere.

Today's Setup and Risk Map

Economic calendar (all times ET):

• 08:30 — Weekly Jobless Claims (consensus: 235K, prior: 233K)
• 10:30 — EIA Natural Gas Storage
• 13:00 — Baker Hughes Rig Count
• Earnings before the bell: Delta Air Lines (DAL) — the first major airline Q2 report; watch fuel cost commentary given Iran/Strait of Hormuz risk

Key futures levels (from market_snapshot.json, 05:57 ET):

• ES1 (S&P 500): 7,581 — overnight range 7,569–7,592; prior settle 7,589
• NQ1 (Nasdaq 100): 29,815 — overnight range 29,717–29,964; prior settle 29,937
• TY1 (10Y): 109.30 — overnight range 109.20–109.34

Bull case: SK Hynix debut demand confirms AI infrastructure thesis; jobless claims inline; chip momentum carries the tape through option expiration Friday. ES1 reclaims 7,589 prior settle and the overnight gap closes early.

Base case: Consolidation. Futures trim 5–30 bp but hold overnight lows. SK Hynix listing absorbs attention but isn't a macro catalyst. Jobless claims inline. Tape chops in a 0.5% range with a slight downward skew from Iran overhang. ES1 range: 7,560–7,600.

Bear case: SK Hynix debut disappoints, triggering a second leg down in semis. Jobless claims surprise higher. Iran ceasefire collapse accelerates, oil spikes, bonds rally hard. ES1 breaks 7,560 overnight low and tests the 7,500 handle.

Biggest risk to base case: The SK Hynix listing. At $26.5 billion it is the largest tech IPO of the cycle and lands on a Friday — thin liquidity, options expiration, and a jumpy semiconductor tape create asymmetric tail risk in both directions.