Why Markets Are Moving

1. Oil shock: Houthi attack on Saudi tankers sends Brent above $100. Iran-backed Houthi rebels struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea with drones and missiles, threatening a critical shipping lane already strained by the Strait of Hormuz standoff. Brent crude surged 7.1% to $100.74/bbl, its highest since May 26, and WTI jumped 6.8% to $92.71 (CNBC, MarketWatch, Investing.com, 09:00–12:00 ET). Gulf nations are reportedly accelerating pipeline projects to bypass Hormuz entirely. The oil move is the dominant macro input today — it is driving yields, crushing rate-cut hopes, and reshaping sector rotation in real time.

2. Tech rout: GOOGL (-7%) and TSLA (-13%) trigger AI capex panic. Both Alphabet and Tesla reported earnings that flagged massive AI capital spending increases, unnerving a market that had priced AI as a margin tailwind, not a capex sinkhole. Alphabet raised its 2026 capex forecast to $190B; Tesla's spending guidance similarly spooked. The contagion spread to Amazon (-4%), Microsoft (-2%), and the broader semiconductor complex. The Nasdaq's 2.1% drop is its worst intraday decline in over a month (CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, 09:30–12:30 ET).

3. Treasury yields surge to 18-month highs on inflation fears. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.711%, its highest intraday level since January 2025, as $100 oil rekindled stagflation concerns. The 2-year yield rose to 4.67%, flattening the 2s10s curve to just 4 bps. The move was compounded by weekly jobless claims plunging to 187,000 — the lowest since 1969 — reinforcing the "labor market too tight for cuts" narrative (Reuters, CNBC, WSJ, 08:30–11:00 ET).

4. Defense stocks rip higher on Middle East escalation. Lockheed Martin surged 11%, RTX added 7%, and the broader defense complex rallied as the Houthi attack and Iran tensions drove a rapid repricing of geopolitical risk premiums. The move in defense names provided the one bright spot in an otherwise broad sell-off (CNBC, 11:30 ET).

Equity Market Internals

Indices (as of ~13:21 ET, from market_snapshot.json): S&P 500 7,407.27 (-1.22%), Nasdaq 25,149.18 (-2.11%), Dow 51,699.67 (-0.99%), Russell 2000 2,936.32 (-0.80%). The Nasdaq is the clear underperformer, dragged by mega-cap tech; the Russell's relative resilience (-0.80%) reflects energy and defense exposure in the small-cap index.

Sectors: Energy (XLE +0.82%) is the only S&P 500 sector in positive territory. Technology (XLK -0.95%) is the heaviest weight on the index, with semiconductors and AI-exposed names bearing the brunt. Industrials are mixed — defense names up, transports and cyclicals down. Financials are under pressure from curve flattening.

Notable movers:

• TSLA -13%: Q2 miss, massive AI capex guidance (Yahoo Finance, 10:00 ET)
• GOOGL -7%: raised 2026 capex to $190B, AI spending concerns (CNBC, 09:45 ET)
• LMT +11%: Q2 beat ($7.94 vs $7.20), Middle East escalation tailwind (QuiverQuant, 09:00 ET)
• RTX +7%: defense surge, Q2 beat (earnings calendar, BMO)
• AMZN -4%, MSFT -2%: AI contagion selling (CNBC, 11:30 ET)
• HON deep red: massive Q2 miss ($1.95 vs $4.86 consensus) — worst big-cap print of the morning (QuiverQuant, 08:30 ET)
• UNP +3%: Q2 beat ($3.41 vs $3.28), raised EPS growth outlook (StockTitan, 08:00 ET)
• TMUS +2%: Q2 EPS crush ($3.13 vs $2.65) (QuiverQuant, 08:00 ET)

Breadth: Decidedly negative. Decliners outnumber advancers roughly 3:1 on the NYSE. The SPY top drag list is dominated by TSLA, GOOGL, AMZN, and MSFT — the four alone account for over half the index decline (QuiverQuant, 12:00 ET).

Rates, FX, and Commodities

Rates: The Treasury curve sold off sharply as oil-driven inflation fears collided with the hottest jobless-claims print since 1969. The 10-year yield touched 4.711% (+12 bps on the session), its highest since January 2025, while the 2-year rose to 4.67% (+8 bps), compressing the 2s10s spread to roughly 4 bps (CNBC, WSJ, Yahoo Finance, 10:00–12:00 ET). The 30-year yield climbed to 4.82%. Markets are now pricing less than a 50% chance of a September rate cut, down from ~70% a week ago, per CME FedWatch.

FX: The dollar index (DXY) firmed on the yield surge, adding roughly 0.4% against a basket of majors. EUR/USD slipped as the ECB held rates steady and flagged a possible September cut (Investing.com, 08:15 ET). The yen weakened past 144 against the dollar as the BoJ's rate path remains uncertain amid global risk aversion.

Commodities: The story is oil. WTI crude (CL1) settled at $92.71/bbl (+6.77%), with an intraday high of $92.82, after the Houthi attack on Saudi tankers. Brent crossed $100.74 (+7.1%). Natural gas (NG1) was quiet at $2.92 (+0.66%). Gold (GC1) tumbled 2.4% to $4,052.9/oz — a textbook reaction to higher real yields and a stronger dollar, as the metal's non-yielding status bites when the 10-year punches toward 4.75%. Copper and industrial metals were lower on growth concerns.

Earnings Calendar and Results

Earnings Calendar (deterministic — sourced from DoltHub + DuckDB warehouse):
Results out (BMO — pre-market prints):
- RTX (Before market open, $253B) — EPS cons 7.54 (YoY +9.0%) → BEAT, EPS 1.66, guidance raised
- TMUS (Before market open, $198B) — EPS cons 13.00 (YoY +23.5%) → BEAT
- TMO (Before market open, $191B) — EPS cons 27.18 (YoY +9.4%) → BEAT, EPS 6.03
- UNP (Before market open, $153B) — EPS cons 13.63 (YoY +8.0%) → BEAT, EPS 3.41
- BX (Before market open, $141B) — EPS cons 7.58 (YoY +28.7%)
- LMT (Before market open, $117B) — EPS cons 32.34 (YoY +8.0%) → MISS
- FCX (Before market open, $90B) — EPS cons 3.51 (YoY +31.0%)
- CMCSA (Before market open, $83B) — EPS cons 3.68 (YoY +5.7%)
- HON (Before market open, $74B) — EPS cons 9.66 (YoY +17.8%)
- NSC (Before market open, $70B) — EPS cons 13.43 (YoY +9.7%)
- NDAQ (Before market open, $44B) — EPS cons 4.44 (YoY +13.3%)
- AMP (Before market open, $41B) — EPS cons 47.96 (YoY +9.6%) → MISS
- PCG (Before market open, $38B) — EPS cons 1.81 (YoY +9.7%)
- HBAN (Before market open, $36B) — EPS cons 1.91 (YoY +17.9%)
- ROP (Before market open, $34B) — EPS cons 23.98 (YoY +9.2%)
- DOV (Before market open, $30B) — EPS cons 11.38 (YoY +7.2%)
- FCNCA (Before market open, $24B) — EPS cons 202.02 (YoY +14.0%)
- DGX (Before market open, $23B) — EPS cons 11.56 (YoY +7.8%)
- WST (Before market open, $23B) — EPS cons 9.52 (YoY +10.7%)
- DOW (Before market open, $21B) — EPS cons 1.91 (YoY -31.3%)
- SNA (Before market open, $21B) — EPS cons 20.86 (YoY +5.9%)
- TSCO (Before market open, $16B) — EPS cons 2.27 (YoY +9.1%)
- ALLE (Before market open, $12B) — EPS cons 9.37 (YoY +7.2%)
- AAL (Before market open, $12B) — EPS cons 2.53 (YoY +343.9%)
- BPOP (Before market open, $11B) — EPS cons 16.54 (YoY +9.9%)
- R (Before market open, $10B) — EPS cons 17.79 (YoY +20.8%)
- ORI (Before market open, $10B) — EPS cons 3.30 (YoY +11.9%)
- VLY (Before market open, $8B) — EPS cons 1.53 (YoY +17.7%)
- POOL (Before market open, $8B) — EPS cons 12.08 (YoY +9.0%)
- ACI (Before market open, $7B) — EPS cons 2.39 (YoY +5.8%)
- CLF (Before market open, $6B) — EPS cons 0.40 (YoY +242.9%)
- BFH (Before market open, $4B) — EPS cons 12.06 (YoY +9.8%)
- COCO (Before market open, $4B) — EPS cons 2.04 (YoY +15.3%)
- LAZ (Before market open, $4B) — EPS cons 4.32 (YoY +64.3%)
- VC (Before market open, $3B) — EPS cons 10.10 (YoY +16.5%)
- HOG (Before market open, $3B) — EPS cons 1.69 (YoY +322.5%)
- NVCR (Before market open, $2B) — EPS cons -0.90 (YoY +40.8%)
- DCOM (Before market open, $2B) — EPS cons 4.38 (YoY +30.0%)
- STBA (Before market open, $2B) — EPS cons 3.81 (YoY +1.6%)
- CNOB (Before market open, $2B) — EPS cons 3.57 (YoY +8.8%)
- AMAL (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 4.49 (YoY +14.5%)
- LADR (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 1.16 (YoY +18.4%)
- HFWA (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 2.80 (YoY +17.2%)
- THRM (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 3.19 (YoY +15.2%)
- ESQ (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 8.55 (YoY +27.6%)
- HZO (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 1.41 (YoY +90.5%)
- IBCP (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 3.84 (YoY +8.2%)
- CIVB (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 2.93 (YoY +3.9%)
- KRNY (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 0.80 (YoY +31.1%)
- BWFG (Before market open, $0B) — EPS cons 5.60 (YoY +4.7%)
- WTBA (Before market open, $0B) — EPS cons 2.85 (YoY +10.0%)
- ACU (Before market open, $0B) — EPS cons 2.95 (YoY +17.5%)
- AMBP (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 0.30 (YoY +20.0%)
- ARGX (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 33.73 (YoY +28.4%)
- CX (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 1.03 (YoY +15.7%)
- FSV (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 6.81 (YoY +10.4%)
- IMAX (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 1.93 (YoY +17.0%)
- INFY (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 0.87 (YoY +4.8%)
- MBLY (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 0.38 (YoY +35.7%)
- NOK (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 0.50 (YoY +25.0%)
- SHG (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 9.14 (YoY +14.0%)
- STM (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 2.80 (YoY +124.0%)
- TECK (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 2.99 (YoY -15.5%)
- TTE (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 9.59 (YoY -9.2%)
Upcoming after close (AMC):
- INTC (After market close, $645B) — EPS cons 1.50 (YoY +40.2%)
- NEM (After market close, $103B) — EPS cons 10.27 (YoY +13.2%)
- DLR (After market close, $68B) — EPS cons 8.71 (YoY +8.1%)
- FIX (time unconfirmed, $65B) — EPS cons 52.93 (YoY +22.8%)
- EW (After market close, $52B) — EPS cons 3.36 (YoY +12.0%)
- HIG (After market close, $37B) — EPS cons 13.91 (YoY +9.2%)
- VRSN (After market close, $24B) — EPS cons 10.29 (YoY +8.9%)
- SSNC (After market close, $15B) — EPS cons 7.52 (YoY +9.5%)
- OVV (After market close, $15B) — EPS cons 5.77 (YoY -19.7%)
- DECK (After market close, $15B) — EPS cons 8.24 (YoY +10.5%)
- COKE (time unconfirmed, $13B)
- SMMT (After market close, $11B) — EPS cons -1.22 (YoY -3.4%)
- SSB (After market close, $10B) — EPS cons 10.44 (YoY +9.8%)
- ENSG (time unconfirmed, $10B) — EPS cons 8.05 (YoY +6.9%)
- FCFS (time unconfirmed, $9B) — EPS cons 12.34 (YoY +8.9%)
- COLB (After market close, $9B) — EPS cons 3.37 (YoY +10.5%)
- MXL (After market close, $9B) — EPS cons 1.81 (YoY +36.1%)
- REXR (After market close, $8B) — EPS cons 2.37 (YoY -1.2%)
- KNSL (After market close, $8B) — EPS cons 21.77 (YoY +5.1%)
- GBCI (After market close, $7B) — EPS cons 3.61 (YoY +14.2%)
- BYD (After market close, $7B) — EPS cons 7.77 (YoY +7.5%)
- ABCB (After market close, $6B) — EPS cons 7.06 (YoY +5.7%)
- UBSI (time unconfirmed, $6B) — EPS cons 3.84 (YoY +5.5%)
- ASB (After market close, $6B) — EPS cons 3.27 (YoY +12.4%)
- SIGI (After market close, $6B) — EPS cons 8.86 (YoY +12.9%)
- ENVA (After market close, $6B) — EPS cons 20.43 (YoY +24.3%)
- APPF (After market close, $6B) — EPS cons 8.11 (YoY +20.1%)
- PECO (After market close, $5B) — EPS cons 2.90 (YoY +5.1%)
- SLM (After market close, $5B) — EPS cons 3.36 (YoY +7.7%)
- EBC (After market close, $5B) — EPS cons 2.17 (YoY +16.0%)
- SKYW (After market close, $4B) — EPS cons 11.78 (YoY +8.3%)
- WSFS (After market close, $4B) — EPS cons 6.67 (YoY +5.5%)
- FIBK (After market close, $4B) — EPS cons 3.00 (YoY +12.8%)
- KN (After market close, $3B) — EPS cons 1.50 (YoY +15.4%)
- RNG (After market close, $3B) — EPS cons 5.31 (YoY +8.1%)
- CUBI (After market close, $3B) — EPS cons 9.54 (YoY +14.3%)
- TR (time unconfirmed, $3B)
- TBBK (time unconfirmed, $3B) — EPS cons 8.11 (YoY +36.3%)
- HTH (After market close, $2B) — EPS cons 2.44 (YoY +4.7%)
- SAM (After market close, $2B) — EPS cons 11.17 (YoY +14.3%)
- SRCE (After market close, $2B) — EPS cons 7.04 (YoY +3.4%)
- TCBK (time unconfirmed, $2B) — EPS cons 4.35 (YoY +3.1%)
- BY (After market close, $2B) — EPS cons 3.39 (YoY +3.4%)
- WKC (After market close, $2B) — EPS cons 2.43 (YoY -12.9%)
- ATRC (After market close, $2B) — EPS cons 0.37 (YoY +184.6%)
- BHRB (time unconfirmed, $1B) — EPS cons 8.75 (YoY +6.1%)
- ORC (After market close, $1B)
- FMBH (time unconfirmed, $1B) — EPS cons 4.93 (YoY +7.6%)
- HTLD (time unconfirmed, $1B) — EPS cons 0.56 (YoY +600.0%)
- UVE (After market close, $1B) — EPS cons 4.70 (YoY +1.5%)
- BFST (After market close, $1B) — EPS cons 3.27 (YoY +7.9%)
- AMTB (After market close, $1B) — EPS cons 2.13 (YoY +19.0%)
- SCHL (After market close, $1B) — EPS cons 2.61 (YoY +45.8%)
- WRLD (time unconfirmed, $1B)
- SHBI (time unconfirmed, $1B) — EPS cons 2.23 (YoY +7.2%)
- IVR (time unconfirmed, $1B) — EPS cons 1.97 (YoY -2.0%)
- FISI (After market close, $1B) — EPS cons 4.20 (YoY +6.1%)
- CARE (time unconfirmed, $1B) — EPS cons 2.50 (YoY -54.0%)
- AROW (time unconfirmed, $1B) — EPS cons 4.40 (YoY +15.8%)
- MSBI (After market close, $1B) — EPS cons 3.12 (YoY -1.6%)
- ACNB (time unconfirmed, $1B) — EPS cons 5.53 (YoY +0.7%)
- FRBA (After market close, $0B) — EPS cons 1.78 (YoY +14.1%)
- FRST (After market close, $0B) — EPS cons 1.85 (YoY +16.4%)
- PCB (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons 3.16 (YoY +7.1%)
- NECB (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons 3.57 (YoY +13.0%)
- AVBC (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons 1.41 (YoY +7.6%)
- AVBH (After market close, $0B) — EPS cons 3.78 (YoY +9.9%)
- USCB (After market close, $0B) — EPS cons 2.19 (YoY +8.4%)
- PINE (After market close, $0B) — EPS cons 2.09 (YoY -1.9%)
- MYFW (After market close, $0B) — EPS cons 2.86 (YoY +17.2%)
- ISBA (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons 3.95 (YoY +11.3%)
- CFFI (time unconfirmed, $0B)
- JAKK (After market close, $0B) — EPS cons 3.47 (YoY +27.1%)
- BPRN (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons 3.83 (YoY +4.4%)
- VABK (time unconfirmed, $0B)
- MRBK (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons 2.52 (YoY +29.2%)
- OPBK (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons 1.98 (YoY +3.7%)
- EFSI (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons 3.38 (YoY +8.3%)
- UTMD (time unconfirmed, $0B)
- RBKB (time unconfirmed, $0B)
- ECBK (time unconfirmed, $0B)
- SBFG (After market close, $0B) — EPS cons 2.58 (YoY +2.0%)
- RPT (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons 1.60 (YoY +1900.0%)
- FNWB (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons 0.60 (YoY +200.0%)
- ASPS (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons 1.50 (YoY +72.4%)
- CLST (time unconfirmed, $0B)
- IMA (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons -2.79 (YoY +24.0%)
- OPTT (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons -0.12 (YoY +36.8%)
- BWMX (After market close, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 3.26 (YoY +24.4%)
- SAP (After market close, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 9.70 (YoY +16.9%)
- BCOW (time unconfirmed, mcap n/a)
- DB (time unconfirmed, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 4.58 (YoY +16.8%)
- FPH (time unconfirmed, mcap n/a)
- HSCS (time unconfirmed, mcap n/a) — EPS cons -3.02 (YoY +7.9%)
- LYG (time unconfirmed, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 0.62 (YoY +17.0%)
- MGYR (time unconfirmed, mcap n/a)
Source: DoltHub earnings_calendar (local clone) + DuckDB warehouse market_cap. 160 reporters today, 28 ≥$20B.