Why Markets Are Moving

1. Oil plunges ~4% — Pakistan peace mediation talk reverses Thursday's spike. WTI crude (CL1) dropped 3.68% to $88.80, completely unwinding Thursday's surge above $100 that triggered a 500+ point Dow selloff (Reuters, 13:22 ET; CNBC, 13:23 ET). The catalyst: a Reuters report that Pakistan is exploring pathways to restart stalled peace talks between the U.S. and Iran (CNBC, 12:04 ET). President Trump had earlier told Axios he was considering a "massive attack" on Iran "bigger than ever before," making the mediation news a sharp tonal reversal (CNBC, 12:04 ET). The oil drop is the single biggest macro driver today — it eased inflation fears, lifted the Dow 290 points, and pulled Treasury yields lower across the curve.

2. Trump imposes "sweeping" new tariffs on 60 trade partners. The administration ramped trade actions back up as global duties expired, imposing new tariffs on 60 countries after the president's trade agenda suffered major legal setbacks earlier this month (CNBC, 10:11 ET). The move adds a layer of policy uncertainty heading into the weekend but has not yet derailed the equity relief rally.

3. Earnings: beats from AXP, VZ, and Intel — but tech sentiment remains fragile. American Express beat Q2 estimates and raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 10% (CNBC, earnings_calendar). Verizon posted a beat and lifted its adjusted EPS outlook while revealing a "dark fiber" AI deal with Google, sending shares higher (MarketWatch, 12:55 ET). Intel delivered 25% revenue growth — its fastest in nearly 15 years — but shares sank on cautious analyst reception (CNBC, 10:05 ET). Tesla continued its post-earnings slide, now down over 18% since Wednesday's report, with the buy-the-dip case weakening as fundamentals stagnate (CNBC, 12:32 ET).

4. Treasury yields slide as bond market prices in lower geopolitical premium. The 10-year Treasury note (TY1) gained 0.23%, pulling yields back from Thursday's spike to 4.71% (CNBC, 13:30 ET). The entire curve rallied — 2Y notes +0.07%, 30Y bonds +0.34% — reflecting both the oil-driven inflation relief and a bid for safe havens ahead of the weekend. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged to its highest 2026 level, flashing a warning for housing (MarketWatch, 12:20 ET).

Equity Market Internals

Sector snapshot (midday, 13:22 ET): The tape is a classic value-over-growth rotation. The Dow (+0.56%) and S&P 500 (+0.45%) are firmly green, while the Nasdaq (+0.03%) is effectively flat and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) is down 0.31%. The Russell 2000 (+0.16%) is modestly positive. Sector ETFs tell the story: Energy (XLE, +0.45%) is holding gains despite the crude crash — the relief trade is lifting the entire complex — while Technology (XLK, −0.31%) is the clear laggard.

Notable single-stock movers (midday, CNBC, 13:15 ET):

• Tesla (TSLA) — continued its post-earnings collapse, now down 18%+ since Wednesday. Capex surged 142% to $5.79B, free cash flow turned negative, and the buy-the-dip case is eroding (CNBC, 12:32 ET). Michael Burry's short positions on TSLA, CAT, NVDA, and AMAT are paying off in the July pullback (CNBC, 12:06 ET).
• American Airlines (AAL) — among the biggest midday movers (CNBC, 13:15 ET).
• Coherent (COHR) — struck a new deal with Nvidia, upgraded to buy from neutral by UBS, with significant upside seen ahead (CNBC, 11:31 ET).
• AMD — more than doubled in 2026. UBS says there's more room to run after promising updates at AMD's AI event this week (CNBC, 07:27 ET).
• Intel (INTC) — Q2 revenue +25% (fastest in ~15 years on AI boom), but shares sank as analysts remained cautious on margins and forward guide (CNBC, 10:05 ET).
• Verizon (VZ) — beat estimates, raised guidance, and announced a "dark fiber" AI deal with Google, sending the stock higher (MarketWatch, 12:55 ET).
• SpaceX — banking on a successful Starship launch today to stem private-market bleeding; HSBC initiated with hold, $115 PT (MarketWatch, 13:17 ET).

Breadth: The VIX eased to −3.10%, exiting Thursday's panic levels. Advance-decline data is positive on the NYSE, with the Dow's 290-point gain driven by broad participation rather than a narrow handful of names.

Rates, FX, and Commodities

Rates: The Treasury curve is rallying across all maturities. The 10Y note (TY1) gained 0.23% (yield lower), the 30Y bond (US1) +0.34%, and the 2Y (TU1) +0.07%. The move reverses Thursday's spike that briefly pushed the 10Y yield to 4.71% — its highest since the oil-shock panic — as bond buyers return on both the oil pullback and pre-weekend safety demand. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up to its highest 2026 level (MarketWatch, 12:20 ET).

FX: The dollar is broadly steady-to-softer against majors, with the DXY giving back some of Thursday's haven bid as geopolitical tensions eased marginally. Quiet elsewhere.

Commodities: The dominant story is crude. WTI (CL1) crashed 3.68% to $88.80, completely erasing Thursday's panic spike above $100 on the Pakistan peace-mediation headline (Reuters, 13:22 ET). Natural gas (NG1) slipped 0.45% to $2.907. Gold (GC1) added 0.46% to $4,068.80 — a modest safe-haven bid persists despite the oil relief, suggesting not all geopolitical premium has been priced out. The oil complex remains the single most important macro variable into the close: any fresh Iran headline could reverse the move just as quickly.

Earnings Calendar and Results

Earnings Calendar (deterministic — sourced from DoltHub + DuckDB warehouse):
Results out (BMO — pre-market prints):
- AXP (Before market open, $232B) — EPS cons 20.25 (YoY +14.6%) → BEAT, EPS 17.30, guidance raised
- VZ (Before market open, $185B) — EPS cons 5.28 (YoY +6.0%) → BEAT, guidance raised
- NEE (Before market open, $185B) — EPS cons 4.36 (YoY +8.7%) → BEAT, EPS 1.15
- HCA (Before market open, $87B) — EPS cons 32.77 (YoY +9.7%) → BEAT
- SLB (Before market open, $70B) — EPS cons 3.34 (YoY +32.0%)
- CHTR (Before market open, $16B) — EPS cons 45.77 (YoY +10.4%)
- THC (Before market open, $16B) — EPS cons 17.62 (YoY +0.7%)
- BAH (Before market open, $7B) — EPS cons 6.85 (YoY +9.3%)
Source: DoltHub earnings_calendar (local clone) + DuckDB warehouse market_cap. 36 reporters today, 5 ≥$20B.