Why Markets Moved

1. AI/Tech Unwind Deepens (Nasdaq -1.1%). Moody's warned that "unprecedented" AI capital spending is threatening the credit quality of Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet, forcing even the most cash-rich firms to lean on debt and off-balance-sheet financing (CNBC, Friday session). The Nasdaq 100 dropped 314 points to 28,306.5, with Western Digital falling 5.14% on memory pricing headwinds and the broader semis complex under pressure. The unwind has now persisted across three sessions and is broadening beyond mega-cap — this driver persists into Monday.

2. Oil Retreats, Providing Relief (WTI -1.87% to $90.47). Crude fell sharply from Thursday's $93+ intraday levels as traders booked profits on the Iran risk premium and U.S. drillers paused rig additions (Baker Hughes data). The pullback offered a pressure release for rate-sensitive and inflation-exposed assets, though the structural supply disruption from the Hormuz/Bab el-Mandeb chokepoints remains unresolved (OilPrice.com). The relief is fragile — any weekend escalation would reverse it.

3. Bonds Rally on Flight-to-Safety Bid. The 10-year T-Note future gained 0.22% (yield ~4.27%) and the long bond added 0.29%, reversing Thursday's yield spike. MarketWatch flagged growing unease about a potential 6% 30-year yield scenario, but Friday's price action showed defensive demand winning the day. The rally was partly a reversal of Thursday's oil-driven rates selloff and partly positioning ahead of next week's Fed meeting.

4. July PMI Beats Expectations (Composite 53.6). S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI printed at 53.8 vs. consensus ~52.5, with services also beating — the composite hit an 8-month high (CNBC, 9:45 AM ET). The data provided a counter-narrative to recession fears but also reinforced the "no-cut" Fed thesis. New orders growth in manufacturing slowed, hinting at tariff-related caution.

5. Trump Threatens "Substantial" EU Tariffs. President Trump threatened additional tariffs on the EU after Brussels fined Google €890 million, accusing Europe of "robbing" American companies (Guardian, Friday). The escalation adds a fresh trade-policy overhang heading into a weekend that could bring retaliatory rhetoric from Brussels.

Equity Market Internals and Notable Movers

The session split along growth-value lines. The Nasdaq's 1.1% decline was concentrated in tech and semis, while the Dow managed a 0.45% gain and the Russell 2000 edged down only 0.26%. Mega-cap contribution was negative: the AI-exposed names bore the brunt of the Moody's warning.

Notable movers:

• Western Digital (WDC): -5.14% — 40TB drive technology bet couldn't offset Kioxia JV uncertainty and memory pricing headwinds (Google Finance)
• GE Vernova (GEV): declined — Q2 EPS missed by 20.63% despite a revenue beat; project timing issues pressured margins (Yahoo Finance)
• Union Pacific (UNP): rose — strong Q2 results and multiple Wall Street price-target hikes outweighed merger uncertainty (MarketBeat)
• Honeywell (HON): positive — declared $0.70 quarterly dividend, upbeat post-spin-off outlook, resilient aerospace demand (Google Finance)
• Qualcomm (QCOM): announced double-digit price increases effective September 1, citing rising supplier costs (Reuters/Bloomberg)

The energy sector was mixed — crude's retreat weighed on producers, but the structural supply disruption thesis kept declines contained. Utilities and consumer staples outperformed in the defensive rotation.

Rates, FX, and Commodities

Treasuries rallied across the curve in a flight-to-safety bid: 10-year futures gained 22bp (yield ~4.27%), the long bond added 29bp, and the 2-year ticked 5bp higher. The rally reversed Thursday's oil-driven yield spike. A Business Insider report flagged a Wall Street chief economist's call that a surprise Fed rate hike at next week's meeting "cannot be ruled out," citing Brent above $100, jobless claims at a 57-year low of 187,000, and core PCE above 3% — though the bond market's Friday price action priced the opposite.

Oil: WTI settled at $90.47 (-1.87%, day range $87.68–$92.83). The pullback reflected profit-taking after Thursday's spike above $93. The structural backdrop remains tight: Saudi Red Sea crude exports have fallen 41% since the March peak as the Kingdom reroutes through its East-West pipeline (OilPrice.com), and Russia's biggest Black Sea oil port has gone quiet amid drone threats.

Gold: +0.14% to $4,055.70, steadying above $4,000 after Thursday's 2.4% selloff. The recovery was capped by Fed hike risk, but Middle East tensions provided a floor (Kitco, FXStreet). Gold's inability to rally strongly despite geopolitical tailwinds suggests the rate narrative is the dominant driver for now.

FX: DXY was quiet. The dollar traded in a narrow range as traders balanced PMI strength against rate-cut hopes. Quiet elsewhere.

Earnings and Corporate Developments

• Verizon (VZ): beat Q2 EPS consensus ($185B market cap, BMO reporter)
• NextEra Energy (NEE): beat Q2 EPS consensus, reported EPS of $1.15 ($185B market cap, BMO)
• HCA Healthcare (HCA): beat Q2 EPS consensus ($87B market cap, BMO)
• Qualcomm (QCOM): notified customers of double-digit price increases for products shipped after September 1, citing supplier cost pressures (Reuters/Bloomberg)
• Paramount/Warner Bros Discovery: agreed to delay the $110B merger closing to as late as June 2027 amid a multi-state legal challenge led by California (Guardian, CNBC)

Tomorrow Setup

Markets are closed for the weekend. Next trading day is Monday, July 27.

Weekend watchlist:

• Iran/Israel: any military escalation, Hormuz Strait developments — the single largest binary risk
• Trump trade policy: potential EU tariff follow-through or retaliatory rhetoric from Brussels
• G20/BIS weekend communiqués: any coordinated central bank signaling

Monday calendar (ET):

• Fed blackout period — final week before July 29-30 FOMC decision
• Earnings: 75 companies reporting Monday (per earnings calendar), including multiple big-cap names
• Economic data: Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM), Dallas Fed Manufacturing (10:30 AM)

Key futures levels (from Friday's close):

• ES1 support: 7,431.5 (Friday low) / resistance: 7,496.5 (Friday high)
• NQ1 support: 28,212.5 / resistance: 28,736.0
• CL1: the $87.68 Friday low is the line — a break below signals the Iran premium is fully priced out

Earnings Calendar and Results

Earnings Calendar (deterministic — sourced from DoltHub + DuckDB warehouse):
Today's full slate:
- AXP (Before market open, $232B) — EPS cons 20.25 (YoY +14.6%)
- VZ (Before market open, $185B) — EPS cons 5.28 (YoY +6.0%) → BEAT
- NEE (Before market open, $185B) — EPS cons 4.36 (YoY +8.7%) → BEAT, EPS 1.15
- HCA (Before market open, $87B) — EPS cons 32.77 (YoY +9.7%) → BEAT
- SLB (Before market open, $70B) — EPS cons 3.34 (YoY +32.0%)
- CHTR (Before market open, $16B) — EPS cons 45.77 (YoY +10.4%)
- THC (Before market open, $16B) — EPS cons 17.62 (YoY +0.7%)
- BAH (Before market open, $7B) — EPS cons 6.85 (YoY +9.3%)
- FLG (Before market open, $6B) — EPS cons 1.46 (YoY +239.5%)
- LW (Before market open, $6B) — EPS cons 3.10 (YoY +8.8%)
- GNTX (Before market open, $5B) — EPS cons 2.18 (YoY +10.7%)
- SXT (Before market open, $5B) — EPS cons 4.65 (YoY +19.2%)
- FHB (Before market open, $4B) — EPS cons 2.57 (YoY +8.0%)
- GRC (Before market open, $2B) — EPS cons 3.04 (YoY +16.9%)
- TNET (time unconfirmed, $2B) — EPS cons 5.08 (YoY +10.4%)
- CRI (time unconfirmed, $2B) — EPS cons 3.25 (YoY +5.2%)
- TMP (time unconfirmed, $1B) — EPS cons 8.10 (YoY +7.3%)
- SBSI (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 3.53 (YoY +2.9%)
- CPF (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 3.48 (YoY +9.8%)
- COFS (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons 3.68 (YoY +2.2%)
- PDLB (time unconfirmed, $0B) — EPS cons 1.77 (YoY -83.2%)
- ULH (After market close, $0B) — EPS cons 1.10 (YoY +144.4%)
- PAMT (time unconfirmed, $0B)
- FCAP (time unconfirmed, $0B)
- OVBC (time unconfirmed, $0B)
- EAF (Before market open, $0B) — EPS cons -4.14 (YoY +33.2%)
- AFBI (time unconfirmed, $0B)
- AXR (time unconfirmed, $0B)
- NDLS (Before market open, $0B)
- CNI (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 6.30 (YoY +11.3%)
- E (time unconfirmed, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 4.83 (YoY -4.5%)
- FGMC (time unconfirmed, mcap n/a)
- LBTYA (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons -1.25 (YoY +9.4%)
- LBTYB (Before market open, mcap n/a)
- LBTYK (Before market open, mcap n/a)
- WF (time unconfirmed, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 10.03 (YoY +19.4%)
Source: DoltHub earnings_calendar (local clone) + DuckDB warehouse market_cap. 36 reporters today, 5 ≥$20B.

The standout print was Verizon's beat — the telecom giant delivered above-consensus results amid resilient consumer spending, while NextEra and HCA also cleared the bar. SLB results were not yet available at session close.