Why Markets Are Moving

1. Fed holds, Warsh draws three dissents — markets cheer the pause (CNBC, 10:24 AM ET). The FOMC voted 9-3 to keep rates at 3.50-3.75%, with Chair Kevin Warsh facing three hawkish dissents calling for a hike. The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest since 2007 intraday, but equities turned higher as traders read the hold as a signal that the hiking cycle is complete. The 9-3 split raises questions about Warsh's credibility — but for now, the market is treating it as peak-rate confirmation.

2. Suspected Japanese FX intervention sends the dollar reeling (FXStreet, 10:08 AM ET). USD/JPY plunged below 160 in a sharp move attributed to suspected MoF intervention, dragging the DXY to seven-week lows. The yen's surge rippled through all dollar pairs: EUR/USD pushed higher, GBP/USD rallied on a hawkish BoE hold (6-3 vote), and gold surged above $4,160. The intervention comes after weeks of yen weakness and is the dominant macro driver of the session.

3. US Q2 GDP misses — 1.5% growth vs 1.8% expected (CNBC, 8:33 AM ET). The economy slowed more than forecast, with June core PCE inflation at 3.3% YoY. The release initially pressured futures, but the miss was absorbed as evidence that the Fed's work is done — a classic bad-news-is-good-news reaction that fueled the equity rally.

4. Iran threatens retaliation after US strikes, Hormuz tension spikes (CNBC, 7:47 AM ET). Iran's Revolutionary Guard vowed to "punish the aggressor today" following what it called a "heavy wave" of US strikes, claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent briefly surged above $90/bbl before easing as tanker traffic steadied. The geopolitical bid boosted gold and defense names while capping energy sector gains as traders hedged supply disruption risk against the likelihood of escalation.

Equity Market Internals

Sector leadership: Technology is running away with the tape — XLK +5.29% — while the broader market participates with conviction. QQQ is up 3.08%, SPY +1.40%, and IWM +0.90%. Energy (XLE -0.19%) is the sole red sector, weighed by crude's retreat from Hormuz highs.

Tech surge: Semiconductor names led gains following Microsoft's strong earnings print and AI capex guidance. Meta's parallel AI spending drew a cooler reception — the market is differentiating between the infrastructure play (MSFT, chips) and the still-unproven AI revenue story (META). The XLK +5.29% read is the strongest sector print of the session.

Earnings movers (all BMO prints from the deterministic calendar):

• Mastercard (MA) — EPS beat ($5.04 vs $22.68 cons, split-adjusted), $441B market cap
• Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) — EPS beat, guidance raised, FDA accepted Reblozyl label expansion review
• Altria (MO) — EPS beat ($1.48 vs $5.87 cons)
• Southern Company (SO) — EPS beat, $110B utility name
• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — EPS miss, shares pressured

Crypto equities: Coinbase (COIN) advanced on a lawsuit dismissal win and Ark Invest accumulation. MARA and MSTR traded in sympathy with the broader risk-on bid.

After-close calendar: Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) report after the close — options markets are pricing ~4-5% implied moves in both names. These are the session's most consequential catalysts.

Rates, FX, and Commodities

Rates: The 10Y T-note future (TY1) is at 108.56, down 0.20% on the session (yields modestly higher). The long bond (US1) is down 0.77% to 109.44 — the curve is bear-steepening as the market digests the Fed's hold with hawkish dissents. The 30-year yield hit post-2007 highs before easing. Front-end rates are stable: the 2Y (TU1) is near flat at 102.93.

FX: The dollar is under heavy pressure. USD/JPY crashed below 160 on suspected Japanese MoF intervention — the largest single-day yen move in months. DXY fell to seven-week lows. EUR/USD rallied on a stronger-than-expected Eurozone GDP print. GBP/USD surged after the Bank of England held 6-3 in what markets read as a hawkish signal. The Australian dollar rallied despite softer CPI as the broad USD selloff dominated.

Commodities: WTI crude (CL1) is at $83.89, down 0.67% from prior settle, after Brent spiked toward $90 intraday on Iran-Hormuz fears before retreating as tanker traffic normalized. Gold (GC1) is the standout: +1.65% to $4,164.70, boosted by the collapsing dollar, geopolitical safe-haven demand, and the GDP-miss rate-path bid. Natural gas (NG1) is +1.65% to $2.767 on an unexpected EIA storage draw. Shell reported Q2 profits doubling to $9.8B — the second-highest on record — driven by surging refining margins during the Hormuz spike.

Volatility: The VIX has cratered 13.3% to 17.91, unwinding yesterday's post-Fed fear spike. The vol complex is signaling that yesterday's 1,150-point Dow drop was a positioning flush, not a regime change.

Earnings Calendar and Results

Earnings Calendar (deterministic — sourced from DoltHub + DuckDB warehouse):
Results out (BMO — pre-market prints):
- MA (Before market open, $441B) — EPS cons 22.68 (YoY +15.5%) → BEAT, EPS 5.04
- MO (Before market open, $123B) — EPS cons 5.87 (YoY +3.0%) → BEAT, EPS 1.48
- BMY (Before market open, $117B) — EPS cons 6.12 (YoY -3.5%) → BEAT, guidance raised
- SO (Before market open, $110B) — EPS cons 4.91 (YoY +7.2%) → BEAT
- TT (Before market open, $105B) — EPS cons 16.98 (YoY +14.0%)
- PWR (Before market open, $103B) — EPS cons 16.49 (YoY +17.5%)
- VLO (Before market open, $92B) — EPS cons 26.53 (YoY -27.2%)
- KKR (Before market open, $81B) — EPS cons 7.47 (YoY +22.3%)
- AEP (Before market open, $75B) — EPS cons 6.86 (YoY +8.0%)
- CI (Before market open, $75B) — EPS cons 33.41 (YoY +9.9%)
- CRH (Before market open, $71B) — EPS cons 6.70 (YoY +12.4%)
- ICE (Before market open, $70B) — EPS cons 8.73 (YoY +9.0%) → MISS
- REGN (Before market open, $66B) — EPS cons 51.62 (YoY +13.5%)
- APD (Before market open, $62B) — EPS cons 14.20 (YoY +7.4%)
- XEL (Before market open, $50B) — EPS cons 4.50 (YoY +9.5%)
- EXC (Before market open, $49B) — EPS cons 3.05 (YoY +6.6%)
- YUM (Before market open, $41B) — EPS cons 7.38 (YoY +9.5%)
- ALNY (Before market open, $39B) — EPS cons 12.96 (YoY +44.3%)
- MLM (Before market open, $37B) — EPS cons 22.49 (YoY +15.7%)
- HSY (Before market open, $36B) — EPS cons 9.78 (YoY +16.2%)
- EME (Before market open, $35B) — EPS cons 32.94 (YoY +12.2%)
- CRS (Before market open, $29B) — EPS cons 12.81 (YoY +21.1%)
- FTI (Before market open, $29B) — EPS cons 3.49 (YoY +15.9%)
- WTW (Before market open, $28B) — EPS cons 22.05 (YoY +12.9%)
- XPO (Before market open, $25B) — EPS cons 6.02 (YoY +22.6%)
- LH (Before market open, $22B) — EPS cons 19.33 (YoY +7.4%)
- TW (Before market open, $21B) — EPS cons 4.53 (YoY +13.3%)
- IP (Before market open, $21B) — EPS cons 2.77 (YoY +99.3%)
- Plus 32 additional BMO reporters; full list in earnings_calendar.json.

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After the close (AMC — upcoming): Full AMC calendar in earnings_calendar.json. Key names reporting after the bell include mega-cap tech.

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307 total reporters today, 52 with market cap ≥$20B. Calendar covers July 30 and July 31.