Overnight Recap

1. US-Iran conflict escalates; oil choppy but contained. The US launched "heavy" strikes on Iranian positions after a thwarted attack on American forces (BBC, Reuters). Iran retaliated by targeting US assets in Kuwait and Bahrain. WTI is at $84, little changed from settlement but down 0.6% overnight as improving Hormuz Strait traffic tempers the war premium (CNBC). The Caspian Pipeline was shut down again after a Black Sea drone attack (OilPrice.com). ADNOC bought five supertankers as the Hormuz crisis tightens shipping capacity.

2. South Korean chips stage record rally. The Kospi logged its biggest single-day surge in history, led by Samsung and SK Hynix, as investors aggressively bought the semiconductor dip after weeks of AI-trade liquidation (CNBC, MarketWatch). The move caps what Korean traders are calling a "bipolar" month of meltdowns followed by a record rebound — the index recouped nearly all July losses in a single session.

3. Apple sinks 7%, Amazon surges 12% after dueling earnings. Investors rendered a split verdict on Big Tech's AI spend: Apple dropped sharply in pre-market trading after results showed iPhone revenue pressure and elevated capex commitments, while Amazon jumped on an across-the-board beat driven by AWS acceleration and retail margin expansion (CNBC). The pair are the defining single-stock movers this morning.

4. BOJ holds at 1%, warns on core inflation. Governor Ueda kept rates unchanged but cautioned that core inflation is exceeding the 2% target, vowing to conduct policy so as "not to fall behind the curve" (ForexLive, CNBC). The statement triggered volatile swings in USD/JPY, with traders reading it as a hawkish hold that tees up a hike at the next meeting.

5. Yen surges on suspected intervention. The dollar dropped sharply against the yen in what traders described as "stealth intervention" — the biggest yen move since 2022 (Reuters, ForexLive). The episode adds a new layer of FX volatility into an already crowded macro calendar.

6. AI hedge fund liquidation signals potential capitulation. Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund — an AI-focused vehicle — is unwinding positions in a fire sale, prompting Wall Street to bet the AI selloff is nearing a capitulation bottom (MarketWatch, Guardian). Separately, corporate insider selling has hit a 20-year bearish extreme (MarketWatch).

Global Equity Movers

Asia-Pacific:

• South Korea Kospi surged to its largest single-day gain on record, led by Samsung and SK Hynix, recouping most of July's losses (CNBC, MarketWatch)
• Japan Nikkei rallied in sympathy with the chip rebound and a softer yen after Ueda's hold
• China CSI 300 underperformed after July factory PMI unexpectedly contracted to 49.4, slipping back into contraction territory (CNBC)
• Australia ASX 200 edged higher, with energy names bid on elevated crude
• Hong Kong Hang Seng tracked mainland weakness but held above the week's lows

Europe (early trade):

• Stoxx 600 opened modestly higher, with energy and tech leading
• FTSE 100 supported by BP (+2%) after the company formally put its North Sea business up for sale (Guardian, OilPrice.com)
• DAX flat; Schaeffler AG fell after adjusting mid-term targets lower (Business Insider)
• HSBC shares in focus after the bank announced a full exit from Australian retail banking, selling to Blackstone (Guardian)

US Pre-Market Single-Stock Movers:

• Apple (AAPL) −7%: post-earnings selloff on iPhone revenue pressure and elevated AI capex guidance (CNBC)
• Amazon (AMZN) +12%: Q2 beat across the board; AWS acceleration and retail margins drove the surge (CNBC)
• Live Nation (LYV): ticket sales at record levels despite broader consumer anxiety (MarketWatch)
• CXMT: Shanghai IPO debut sets up the next test against Western chip sanctions (CNBC)

Rates, FX, and Commodities

Rates. The Treasury curve is little changed overnight: 10Y T-Note futures at 108.50 (−0.04% vs settle, +0.06% vs 6 PM ET anchor), 2Y at 102.875 (−0.05%), and long bonds at 109.41 (+0.03%). The curve is holding in a tight range as traders wait on next week's payrolls print and digest the Fed's July hold with three FOMC dissenters (CNN, CNBC). The BOJ's hawkish hold is keeping upward pressure on JGB yields, with the 10Y JGB near 1.9% — the highest in over a decade — which is incrementally tightening global financial conditions at the long end.

FX. DXY is softer at ~99.8, down 0.3% overnight. The dominant story is USD/JPY: the pair swung from ¥155 to ¥151 in suspected intervention, the largest intraday yen move since 2022 (Reuters, ForexLive). EUR/USD firmed to 1.102 after eurozone flash CPI printed at 2.6% y/y — a tick higher — keeping ECB hawks in the conversation (ForexLive). GBP/USD steady near 1.285.

Commodities. WTI crude at $83.69 (−0.6% overnight) — choppy and headline-driven on Iran/Hormuz. The monthly gain stands near 20% (OilPrice.com). BP's formal North Sea sale adds to the structural supply narrative. Gold is down 1.2% to $4,111/oz, failing to extend gains despite the geopolitical backdrop as haven flows pivot to equities. Nat gas +0.8% to $2.78/MMBtu.

Today's Setup and Risk Map

Economic Calendar (all times ET):

• 08:30 — June PCE Price Index (core est. +0.1% m/m, +2.6% y/y; prior +0.1%/+2.6%)
• 08:30 — June Personal Income & Spending (income est. +0.4%, spending est. +0.3%)
• 09:45 — July Chicago PMI (est. 44.8; prior 43.4)
• 10:00 — July Michigan Consumer Sentiment final (est. 66.0; prior 66.0)

Futures Levels (05:58 ET anchor):

• S&P 500 (ES1): 7,505 — resistance 7,518, support 7,468
• Nasdaq 100 (NQ1): 28,536 — resistance 28,641, support 28,300
• WTI (CL1): $83.69

Scenarios:

• Bull case: PCE prints in line or soft → rate-cut narrative strengthens → tech rebound extends through the close; NQ1 retests 28,641.
• Base case: PCE in line, geopolitics contained → modest gains hold; rotation from defensives into semis continues; ES1 consolidates near 7,505.
• Bear case: Hot PCE or Hormuz escalation → bond yields spike, yen intervention unwinds → AAPL-led tech weakness broadens; ES1 tests 7,468.

Biggest risk to the base case: A hot PCE print that forces the market to reprice September rate-cut odds lower, colliding with a Friday de-risking impulse and unwinding the overnight tech bid.

Earnings Calendar and Results

Earnings Calendar (deterministic — sourced from DoltHub + DuckDB warehouse):
Already reported (pre-open, BMO):
- XOM (Before market open, $640B) — EPS cons 10.96 (YoY -5.1%)
- ABBV (Before market open, $465B) — EPS cons 16.19 (YoY +14.2%)
- CVX (Before market open, $374B) — EPS cons 13.54 (YoY -13.2%)
- LIN (Before market open, $241B) — EPS cons 19.63 (YoY +9.7%)
- ETN (Before market open, $154B) — EPS cons 15.71 (YoY +17.7%)
- CL (Before market open, $74B) — EPS cons 4.05 (YoY +6.3%)
- D (Before market open, $62B) — EPS cons 3.81 (YoY +6.7%)
- CBOE (Before market open, $31B) — EPS cons 14.46 (YoY +5.9%)
- ARES (Before market open, $29B) — EPS cons 7.33 (YoY +22.6%)
- TROW (Before market open, $25B) — EPS cons 10.13 (YoY +0.1%)
- NVT (Before market open, $25B) — EPS cons 5.66 (YoY +24.1%)
- CHD (Before market open, $24B) — EPS cons 4.01 (YoY +7.2%)
- MRNA (Before market open, $22B) — EPS cons -4.33 (YoY +49.9%)
- LYB (Before market open, $19B) — EPS cons 6.58 (YoY -23.2%)
- RBC (Before market open, $17B) — EPS cons 16.60 (YoY +14.5%)
- BEN (Before market open, $17B) — EPS cons 3.14 (YoY +11.7%)
- BTSG (Before market open, $14B) — EPS cons 2.13 (YoY +25.3%)
- FRT (Before market open, $11B) — EPS cons 7.91 (YoY +5.2%)
- LEA (Before market open, $7B) — EPS cons 17.22 (YoY +16.3%)
- AN (Before market open, $7B) — EPS cons 24.41 (YoY +14.0%)
- GTES (Before market open, $7B) — EPS cons 1.90 (YoY +18.7%)
- POR (Before market open, $6B) — EPS cons 3.57 (YoY +5.3%)
- BCPC (Before market open, $5B) — EPS cons 6.00 (YoY +5.3%)
- WT (Before market open, $3B) — EPS cons 1.28 (YoY +12.3%)
- NWL (Before market open, $2B) — EPS cons 0.63 (YoY +10.5%)
- PRLB (Before market open, $2B) — EPS cons 2.24 (YoY +8.2%)
- PWP (Before market open, $1B)
- BBUC (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 5.93 (YoY +7.0%)
- BEP (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons -1.52 (YoY +1.9%)
- BEPC (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons -2.63 (YoY +14.6%)
- BLDP (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons -0.12 (YoY +25.0%)
- BSAC (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 3.26 (YoY +16.8%)
- CCJ (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 2.06 (YoY +53.7%)
- ENB (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 2.35 (YoY +10.3%)
- FTS (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 2.75 (YoY +6.6%)
- IMO (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 9.01 (YoY -6.1%)
- ITUB (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 0.98 (YoY +10.1%)
- KYIV (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 1.47 (YoY +2.8%)
- MGA (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 7.68 (YoY +12.6%)
- NWG (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 2.22 (YoY +14.4%)
- PAYP (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 0.91 (YoY +35.8%)
- SMFG (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 2.05 (YoY +10.2%)
- TAC (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 0.37 (YoY +117.6%)
- UBS (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 4.16 (YoY +18.5%)
- VEON (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 8.95 (YoY +28.0%)
Tomorrow (2026-08-03):
- PLTR (After market close, $295B) — EPS cons 2.08 (YoY +40.5%)
- VRTX (After market close, $120B) — EPS cons 21.04 (YoY +9.9%)
- MAR (Before market open, $100B) — EPS cons 13.31 (YoY +14.2%)
- WMB (After market close, $91B) — EPS cons 2.06 (YoY -12.3%)
- OKE (After market close, $57B) — EPS cons 6.18 (YoY +10.4%)
- FANG (After market close, $54B) — EPS cons 16.76 (YoY -11.3%)
- ON (After market close, $31B) — EPS cons 4.29 (YoY +38.8%)
- L (Before market open, $24B)
Source: DoltHub earnings_calendar (local clone) + DuckDB warehouse market_cap. 45 reporters today, 13 ≥$20B.