Why Markets Are Moving

1. Iran de-escalation triggers risk reset (the dominant driver). President Trump posted on Truth Social that he called off an attack on Iran to pursue negotiations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. "Get to work, everybody, and get it DONE," he wrote. Crude oil immediately collapsed — WTI fell $4.67 (-5.52%) to $80.00/bbl as of 13:22 ET (Yahoo Finance, market_snapshot.json). Brent dropped in sympathy. European equity indices closed solidly higher, with the FTSE 100 lagging only on AstraZeneca's 8.9% drop (ForexLive, 11:00 ET; Guardian, 08:10 ET). The risk-off premium that defined July is being priced out in a single session.

2. ISM Manufacturing PMI beats at 55.6 — reacceleration signal. The July ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 55.6 versus the 54.0 consensus estimate, marking a 2.3-point jump from June (ForexLive, 10:00 ET). New orders and production components drove the beat. Separately, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model surged to 6.2% for Q3, up from 5.0% previously (ForexLive, ~10:30 ET). The combination of easing oil and strengthening macro data is powerfully pro-risk.

3. Joint U.S.-Japan yen intervention supports risk assets. The U.S. Treasury and Bank of Japan conducted a coordinated intervention to support the yen, which had been in freefall (MarketWatch, 11:20 ET; Schwab, 09:15 ET). The dollar index edged lower, and the intervention removed a tail risk that had been rattling carry trades and EM FX. USD/CHF ran higher in North American trading but met swing-area resistance (ForexLive, technical analysis, ~11:00 ET). AUD/USD sellers pushed the pair lower after it tested the 100-day moving average (ForexLive, ~11:00 ET).

4. Big Tech leads, chips lag — a rotation signal. The Nasdaq's 2.17% gain is being driven by software and consumer-tech names rather than semiconductors, according to Schwab's morning note (Joe Mazzola, 09:15 ET). JPMorgan strategists published a note arguing tech stocks are likely to take a back seat for the rest of 2026 (MarketWatch, 11:03 ET). AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, and GOOGL are all higher, but the semis are mixed — reflecting a broadening of the rally beyond the AI trade.

Equity Market Internals

Sector leadership (midday snapshot): Technology (XLK +1.54%) and consumer discretionary lead the tape, while energy (XLE -1.02%) is the sole declining sector as oil's plunge weighs on the group. Financials, industrials, and healthcare are all solidly higher, confirming broad participation.

Notable single-stock movers:

• AstraZeneca (AZN) -8.9%: Shares fell on reports of merger talks with Bristol-Myers Squibb, a deal that would create a pharmaceutical giant but at a steep premium. The Guardian reports AZN is in advanced discussions (Guardian, ~08:00 ET).
• Visa (V) +1.2%: Visa agreed to acquire cybersecurity firm BioCatch for $2.4 billion amid a surge in AI-powered payment scams (CNBC, ~12:00 ET). The deal strengthens Visa's fraud-detection capabilities.
• CXMT +466% (IPO debut): China's DRAM producer surged on its trading debut, raising $8.6 billion at a $488 billion market valuation. The IPO provides Apple (AAPL) with more sourcing leverage against Micron (MU) (TechStock², 13:31 ET).
• Boeing (BA) +2.5%: The FAA cleared the smallest 737 Max variant to fly after years of certification delays — a milestone for Boeing's commercial aviation recovery (CNBC, ~12:00 ET).
• Monster Beverage (MNST): Q2 2026 preview shows revenue expected at $2.42 billion (+14.5% YoY), EPS $0.59 (+13.5%), driven by global energy drink demand and new product innovations (TechStock², 13:34 ET).
• 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day': Sony's latest Spider-Man film posted the highest domestic opening weekend ever at $360 million, beating 'Avengers: Endgame' (CNBC, 11:46 ET). Shares of Sony (SONY) and theater chains are seeing positive spillover.

Breadth: Advancers outnumber decliners roughly 3:1 on both the NYSE and Nasdaq. The Russell 2000's 1.43% gain confirms small-cap participation — this is not a narrow mega-cap rally.

Rates, FX, and Commodities

Rates: The Treasury complex rallied across the curve as oil's decline eased inflation fears. The 10-year T-note futures (TY1) gained 0.36% to 108.39, implying a yield near 4.68%, down ~6bp on the session (market_snapshot.json, 13:22 ET). The 2-year (TU1 +0.06%) and long bond (US1 +0.66%) also rallied, with the long bond outperforming — a bull-steepening move consistent with easing inflation expectations. The 10Y-2Y spread remains inverted but is narrowing.

FX: The dollar index edged lower as the joint U.S.-Japan yen intervention dominated FX markets. USD/JPY pulled back from multi-decade highs. USD/CHF probed higher but hit swing-area resistance (ForexLive, ~11:00 ET). AUD/USD reversed after testing the 100-day MA, with sellers pushing the pair lower (ForexLive, ~11:00 ET). The pound and euro both strengthened against the dollar, with UK manufacturing PMI data showing growth as "Trump tariff chaos eases" (Guardian, 06:29 ET).

Commodities: WTI crude is the session's defining move — down $4.67 (-5.52%) to $80.00/bbl as of 13:22 ET (market_snapshot.json). The catalyst is Trump's Iran de-escalation. Natural gas was flat (+0.44% to $2.76). Gold slipped 0.38% to $4,091/oz, a modest decline given the collapse in geopolitical risk premium — suggesting residual safe-haven demand. OilPrice.com reports that dark tanker transits at the Bab el-Mandeb strait have surged as Houthi threats persist (OilPrice.com), and European gas prices tumbled on Trump's Iran reversal (OilPrice.com).

Earnings Calendar and Results

Earnings Calendar (deterministic — sourced from DoltHub + DuckDB warehouse):
Results out (BMO — pre-market prints):
- MAR (Before market open, $100B) — EPS cons 13.31 (YoY +14.2%) → BEAT
- ECHO (Before market open, $27B) — EPS cons 0.42 (YoY +121.8%) → BEAT
- L (Before market open, $24B) → BEAT
- TSN (Before market open, $20B) — EPS cons 4.60 (YoY +12.7%) → BEAT, EPS 0.52
- CNH (Before market open, $13B) — EPS cons 0.67 (YoY +63.4%)
- KRYS (Before market open, $11B) — EPS cons 9.30 (YoY +27.2%)
- TGTX (Before market open, $8B) — EPS cons 2.94 (YoY +102.8%)
- TWST (Before market open, $6B) — EPS cons -1.50 (YoY +27.5%)
- AVA (Before market open, $3B) — EPS cons 2.72 (YoY +6.7%)
- LIND (Before market open, $2B) — EPS cons 0.38 (YoY +137.5%)
- SBH (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 2.26 (YoY +9.7%)
- ALX (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 12.47 (YoY +5.1%)
- DEA (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 3.11 (YoY +0.3%)
- PLOW (Before market open, $1B) — EPS cons 2.98 (YoY +4.6%)
- BCBP (Before market open, $0B) — EPS cons 1.25 (YoY +13.6%)
- ABTC (Before market open, mcap n/a)
- CGEN (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons -0.21 (YoY +25.0%)
- CNA (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 4.78 (YoY +16.9%)
- HESM (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 3.01 (YoY +5.2%)
- KOS (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 0.16 (YoY -44.8%)
- MMYT (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 2.11 (YoY +14.1%)
- SRAD (Before market open, mcap n/a) — EPS cons 0.67 (YoY +71.8%)
Upcoming after close (AMC):
- PLTR (After market close, $295B) — EPS cons 2.08 (YoY +40.5%)
- VRTX (After market close, $120B) — EPS cons 21.07 (YoY +10.0%)
- WMB (After market close, $91B) — EPS cons 2.06 (YoY -12.3%)
- OKE (After market close, $57B) — EPS cons 6.20 (YoY +11.5%)
- FANG (After market close, $54B) — EPS cons 16.76 (YoY -11.3%)
- ON (After market close, $31B) — EPS cons 4.29 (YoY +38.8%)
- SBAC (After market close, $20B) — EPS cons 12.15 (YoY -0.4%)
- BWXT (After market close, $16B) — EPS cons 5.23 (YoY +13.4%)
- JAZZ (After market close, $15B) — EPS cons 26.05 (YoY +1.9%)
- STRL (After market close, $15B) — EPS cons 25.26 (YoY +32.9%)
- TKO (After market close, $14B) — EPS cons 5.50 (YoY +11.8%)
- CLX (After market close, $12B) — EPS cons 6.03 (YoY +9.2%)
- AEIS (After market close, $11B) — EPS cons 11.54 (YoY +23.4%)
- ALSN (After market close, $10B) — EPS cons 11.21 (YoY +16.2%)
Source: DoltHub earnings_calendar (local clone) + DuckDB warehouse market_cap. 131 reporters today, 10 ≥$20B.

The standout BMO print: MAR beat on its $100B market-cap weight. Among the AMC headliners, PLTR ($295B) is the session's most consequential after-close event — markets are demanding more than another beat after 8 straight quarters; guidance and commercial revenue growth will be the swing factors.