Overnight Recap

Previous Session Context

Orientation from Wednesday's cash session and its immediate wrap, for the open:

• Wednesday closed higher as bond yields retreated from multi-decade highs and the yen strengthened — S&P 500 +0.46%, Dow +0.56%, Nasdaq +0.45%, Russell 2000 +1.13% (snapshot; Bloomberg markets wrap, 18:08 ET).
• Malaysia's central bank is expected to hold rates steady Thursday, with subdued inflation giving little reason to tighten despite resilient growth (Bloomberg, 20:00 ET) — a datum for the Asian-rates read.

Global Equity Movers

• US futures (pre-market): ES1 7,675 (-0.02%), NQ1 29,143 (-0.15%), RTY1 2,953 (-0.20%) at 06:07 ET — a marginal pullback after Wednesday's higher close. Broadcom (AVGO) is the main pre-market mover, fading after the strong-but-mixed print as analysts weigh the near-term revenue guide (MarketWatch, 05:00 ET); Snowflake (SNOW) holds its AI-fueled surge; HPE firm on its AI-server beat (MarketWatch, 20:22 ET). Sector proxies: energy leads on the crude bid while rate-sensitive tech carries the modest equity discount (snapshot).
• Asia/global rates-FX linkage: the yen's rally is the region's key swing factor, pressuring exporters as traders price BOJ tightening (FT, 04:55 ET). Asian gas/LNG at multi-year highs (OilPrice, 03:30 ET; Bloomberg, 22:38 ET) keeps the energy-inflation overhang on Asia-Pacific equities into the open.
• South Korea's semiconductor exports roughly tripled year-over-year, feeding the AI-capacity narrative but raising concentration-risk questions for the export economy (CNBC, 01:11 ET).
• Google/Alphabet began September with renewed AI momentum after its longest monthly losing streak in over a decade, helped by a new Flash model family and a federal judge rejecting the DOJ's push to force a sale of its ad exchange (CNBC, 03:28 ET).
• Microsoft will begin disclosing Azure quarterly revenue in dollars for the first time, sharpening the AI-cloud disclosure set (CNBC, 18:37 ET).

Rates, FX, and Commodities

• Rates: U.S. 10-year 4.80% (52-week high, +12.4bp wtd), 30-year 5.27%, 2-year 4.20% (+1bp) at 06:07 ET (snapshot). The read is fiscal/energy-risk led: high debt issuance colliding with an oil-shock inflation impulse and tighter-for-longer expectations (CNBC, 04:17 ET). Japan's JGB above 3% on BOJ-hike bets; the BOJ is said to favor a quarter-point hike this month (Bloomberg, 03:35 ET). Malaysia expected to hold (Bloomberg, 20:00 ET).
• FX: The yen is the mover — rallied as traders bet on Japan rate rises (FT, 04:55 ET), with BOJ accounts suggesting no major intervention on Wednesday (Bloomberg, 05:26 ET). Elsewhere the dollar tone was mixed; crude's bid and the higher-rate narrative are the cross-asset anchor.
• Oil: WTI ~$92.18/bbl (CL1 +1.29% vs prior settle, o/n +1.52%) on the renewed Iran escalation and Hormuz shipping risk flagged through year-end (Mitsui OSK, Bloomberg, 02:10 ET). Asian LNG at the highest since 2022 (OilPrice, 03:30 ET); Europe's low gas stocks set up a winter LNG battle (OilPrice, 05:45 ET).
• Gold: +1.3% to ~$4,474 on yen-intervention risk and the Iran conflict (Bloomberg, 19:58 ET; snapshot). The Dutch central bank moving gold out of the U.S./Canada adds a marginal bid (CNBC, 05:38 ET).
• Natgas: +1.05% to ~2.99 on the Middle East supply overhang (snapshot).

Today's Setup and Risk Map

Earnings today (deterministic — from earnings_calendar.json):

• Before the open (BMO): CIEN (Ciena, ~$54B) reports; plus 14 smaller-cap names.
• After the close (AMC): CPRT (~$31B, time unconfirmed), ZS (~$29B), IOT (~$24B); plus 45 smaller-cap reporters.

Key levels into the open: ES1 7,675 (flat, -0.02%), NQ1 29,143 (-0.15%), RTY1 2,953 (-0.20%); WTI ~$92.18 with Brent higher on the Gulf escalation; U.S. 10-year 4.80% (52-week high); gold ~$4,474; USD/JPY softer on BOJ-hike bets (snapshot, 06:07 ET).

Scenarios:

• Bull: Washington's push to keep the Iran conflict "quiet" before the midterms contains the escalation; oil's premium partially unwinds, yields ease from the 52-week high, and dip-buyers step into the flat tape after Wednesday's higher close.
• Base: The open is flat-to-modestly lower and rangebound; energy and gold outperform on the geopolitical bid while long-duration tech stays capped by the 4.80% 10-year; CIEN's print and tonight's ZS/CPRT/IOT reports set the tone into Friday.
• Bear: Another Gulf escalation — a fresh strike or a Hormuz flow interruption — pushes Brent and the war premium higher, yields follow on the inflation impulse, and the higher-rate squeeze resumes across growth multiples.

Biggest risk to the base case: The Gulf. The prior session's containment relief (bond-yield retreat, higher cash close) unwound within hours on the Kuwait strike. Each new oil print feeds directly into the higher-rate-era repricing the market is now paying for (CNBC, 04:17 ET; Bloomberg, 02:10 ET; snapshot).

Earnings Calendar and Results

Earnings Calendar (deterministic — sourced from DoltHub + DuckDB warehouse):
Already reported (pre-open, BMO):
- CIEN (Before market open, $54B) — EPS cons 9.63 (YoY +47.5%)
- …plus 14 smaller-cap reporters (<$20B market cap) — micro-caps collapsed for readability.
Upcoming today (after close, AMC):
- CPRT (time unconfirmed, $31B) — EPS cons 1.66 (YoY +5.1%)
- ZS (After market close, $29B) — EPS cons 4.51 (YoY +8.9%)
- IOT (After market close, $24B) — EPS cons 0.93 (YoY +25.7%)
- …plus 45 smaller-cap reporters (<$20B market cap) — micro-caps collapsed for readability.
Tomorrow (2026-09-04):
- …plus 11 smaller-cap reporters (<$20B market cap) — micro-caps collapsed for readability.
Source: DoltHub earnings_calendar (local clone) + DuckDB warehouse market_cap. 63 reporters today, 4 ≥$20B.