Overnight Recap

Previous Session Context

• Wednesday's cash session fell for a third consecutive day: S&P 500 7,636.36 (down 0.48%), Nasdaq Composite 26,253.34 (down 0.64%), Dow 52,380.66 (down 0.77%, a 405-point drop), Russell 2000 2,921.23 (down 1.32%) (snapshot; CNBC live blog, 19:05 ET Wednesday). Prior-session recap, not overnight news.
• The trigger was the Treasury's $6bn buyback of 10–20 year paper: the 10-year yield spiked to a session high of 4.857%, its highest since November 2023, on the read that the operation was "near the lower end of the whisper range" and far too small to absorb the duration on offer (CNBC, 19:05 ET Wednesday; Yahoo Finance/Euronews, 04:15 ET).
• Wednesday's settlements were the year's energy markers: Brent closed at $101.21, up 3.4%, and WTI at $96.05, up 3.3% — both the highest settlements since May (CNBC, 19:05 ET Wednesday).

Global Equity Movers

Asia (Thursday closes):

• Japan — Nikkei 225 up 0.2% to 65,270.95; Topix up 0.2% to 4,054.58. The region's outperformer even with the 10-year Treasury yield at a three-year high (CNBC, 05:00 ET).
• Korea — Kospi down 0.25% to 7,033.92, giving back part of Wednesday's 1.40% gain; small-cap Kosdaq up 0.79% (Trading Economics CFD feed, 02:40 ET; CNBC, 05:00 ET).
• Hong Kong / China — Hang Seng down 1.23% in its last hour of trade; mainland CSI 300 down 0.53% to 4,548.39 (CNBC, 05:00 ET).
• Australia — ASX 200 down more than 1% to 8,819.4 (CNBC, 05:00 ET).
• India — Sensex lower, Nifty roughly flat (up about 15 points) amid weak global cues (India TV News, 00:10 ET).
• MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.6%; MSCI Emerging Markets down 0.6% (Bloomberg markets wrap, 01:00 ET).

Europe (Thursday morning, ahead of the ECB):

• Stoxx 600 down 0.2% at 10:22 London time (~05:22 ET), having opened marginally higher; FTSE 100 down 0.34% to 10,634.22, DAX down 0.25% to 25,512.63, while the CAC 40 was up 0.05%, Italy's FTSE MIB up 0.15% and Spain's IBEX up 0.08% (Bloomberg, 01:00 ET; CNBC, 04:50 and 05:40 ET; Guardian, 05:13 ET).
• Associated British Foods down almost 10% in London — Primark's Q4 like-for-like sales are expected down 3% and the group reiterated only vague full-year guidance (Guardian, 05:13 ET).

US pre-market single names:

• American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) down 10.6% to $15.10 after hours despite an upbeat Q2 that leaned on a large tariff refund; mid-single-digit comp guidance was not enough (Benzinga, 03:10 ET; CNBC, 18:15 ET Wednesday).
• AeroVironment (AVAV) up about 2% after hours — Q1 adjusted EPS of 59c on revenue of $480.5m against a 25c / $456m consensus (CNBC, 18:15 ET Wednesday).
• Cooper Companies (COO) cut FY26 guidance below estimates after a mixed Q3: EPS $1.15 beat $1.12, revenue of $1.066bn missed $1.098bn (Benzinga, 03:10 ET).
• Oracle (ORCL) around $161 in after-hours trade, up 0.2% ahead of tonight's print, still more than 50% below its ~$345 all-time peak (Benzinga, 03:10 ET; investingLive, 04:58 ET).
• Meta (META) gained more than 6% Wednesday on its new Muse personal AI agent; Cloudflare (NET) closed up 10.5% at $314.18 on an AI-security product, while ServiceTitan (TTAN) fell about 30% on soft Q3 guidance (investingLive, 05:56 ET).
• Adobe (ADBE) down 0.7% to $252.99 after hours ahead of tonight's results (Benzinga, 03:10 ET).

Rates, FX, and Commodities

Rates. The long end remains the pressure point. The deterministic snapshot (06:05 ET) has the 10-year at 4.837% — up 3.1 bp on the day and its exact 52-week high — the 30-year at 5.286% (up 2.2 bp) and the 2-year at 4.182% (down 1.8 bp), leaving the 2s10s slope near 66 bp and roughly flat on the day; the 10-year futures contract (TY1) is the weakest part of the curve complex, down 0.13% overnight. CNBC's live Thursday quote has the 10-year at 4.8589% (up more than 2 bp), the 30-year at 5.3092% and the 2-year at 4.4404% — the two feeds disagree on the 2-year tenor and that gap is disclosed in the appendix. Overseas, Germany's 10-year is little changed at 3.45%, the UK 10-year up 2 bp to 5.28%, and the Bank of Japan is expected to hike to 1.25% on 18 September. JP Morgan and ING both flag the 30-year auction as the session's real rates test.

FX. The dollar is barely moving: DXY 98.80, inching off a three-week low (Trading Economics, 05:40 ET). EUR/USD 1.1633–1.1638 and GBP/USD 1.3547–1.3553, both marginally softer into the ECB; USD/JPY 153.68–153.70, pausing the yen's climb to fresh seven-month highs ahead of next week's expected BoJ hike; offshore yuan 6.7058, near its strongest in almost four years after China's PPI and CPI both rose on energy costs. NZD up 0.2% to 0.5848, AUD flat at 0.7209, USD/KRW 1,342.41 (up 0.17%) and USD/INR 95.43 (up 0.29%) (CNBC, 05:15 ET; Bloomberg, 01:00 ET; Trading Economics, 05:40 ET).

Commodities. Brent is the market: $102.06–102.17, up 0.9–1.1%, after Iran signalled it is ready for a more intense war (Bloomberg, 01:00 ET; CNBC, 05:03 ET); WTI $97.01–97.77, up 1.0–1.8% (snapshot, 05:55 ET). The gas complex is the under-priced corner — UK front-month gas jumped above 200p a therm, the highest since December 2022, and Dutch TTF breached €80/MWh for the first time since January 2023, with EU storage only 67% full against an 84% five-year average after Ukrainian drones hit Russian gas processing in the Yamal region (Guardian, 05:13 ET). Gold is $4,393–4,437, down 0.1–0.5% on the day after erasing an overnight bounce (Bloomberg, 01:00 ET; snapshot, 05:55 ET); silver down 0.94% to $66.6, copper down 0.85%, nat gas down 1.24% to $2.787, and US diesel at another record high (Trading Economics, 05:40 ET; MarketWatch, 18:51 ET Wednesday).

Today's Setup and Risk Map

Calendar (all times ET). 08:15 — ECB rate decision, deposit rate expected up 25 bp to 2.50% (near-unanimous Bloomberg poll); Lagarde's press conference follows at about 08:45 with updated staff forecasts, where JPMorgan expects the projections rather than the guidance to make the case for further tightening. 08:30 — US August PPI: consensus up 0.3–0.4% m/m and up 5.3% y/y versus 4.7% prior, with core PPI seen up 4.6% y/y versus 4.2% (CNBC/Dow Jones, 19:05 ET; investingLive, 02:43 ET); the expected spike is energy. 08:30 — initial jobless claims seen at 205k versus 206k prior, continuing claims 1,780k versus 1,779k (investingLive, 02:43 ET). Morning — August existing home sales (CNBC, 19:05 ET). 13:00 — $22bn 30-year Treasury auction, the session's most important print after PPI (Bloomberg, 01:00 ET). After the close — ORCL and ADBE report, plus CPRT (earnings_calendar.json).

Key levels into the open (05:55 ET snapshot). ES1 7,653.0 (up 0.12% on prior settle, up 0.09% since 18:00 ET; 88% of its 52-week range), NQ1 29,412.75 (down 0.12%; 83% of range), RTY1 2,925.7 (up 0.09%); 10-year 4.837%; WTI $97.77 with Brent above $102; gold $4,437.3; VIX 16.50, still low at 17% of its 52-week range.

Scenarios.

• Bull: PPI lands at or below consensus and the 30-year auction clears; Brent fails to hold $102 and the three-day slide stops, with AI-infrastructure names leading a broad bounce.
• Base: A modestly higher but narrow open that stalls into the ECB and PPI — energy bid, long-end yields pinned at their highs, semiconductors offsetting software and consumer retail weakness.
• Bear: A hot PPI plus a weak 30-year auction takes the 10-year through 4.86% toward 5%, and further Hormuz escalation lifts Brent toward Goldman's $120 — the combination that does real damage to long-duration equity.

Biggest risk to the base case: an oil-supply event, not a data point. Hormuz flows are already below 2 million bpd, VLCC freight is at records and the US has promised a tanker for every attempted strike on its warships; a hit on Saudi processing capacity or an enforced exclusion zone would convert today's orderly futures open into an inflation shock arriving exactly between an ECB hike, a Friday CPI and a 15–16 September FOMC the market prices at roughly 60% to tighten (CNBC, 05:03 ET; OilPrice, 19:00 ET Wednesday; Bloomberg, 01:24 ET).

Earnings Calendar and Results

Earnings Calendar (deterministic — sourced from DoltHub + DuckDB warehouse):
Already reported (pre-open, BMO):
- …plus 9 smaller-cap reporters (<$20B market cap) — micro-caps collapsed for readability.
Upcoming today (after close, AMC):
- ORCL (After market close, $435B) — EPS cons 10.92 (YoY +35.7%)
- ADBE (After market close, $115B) — EPS cons 27.49 (YoY +12.8%)
- CPRT (After market close, $31B) — EPS cons 1.66 (YoY +5.1%)
- …plus 41 smaller-cap reporters (<$20B market cap) — micro-caps collapsed for readability.
Tomorrow (2026-09-11):
- KR (Before market open, $35B) — EPS cons 5.52 (YoY +6.0%)
- …plus 6 smaller-cap reporters (<$20B market cap) — micro-caps collapsed for readability.
Source: DoltHub earnings_calendar (local clone) + DuckDB warehouse market_cap. 53 reporters today, 3 ≥$20B.