InstrumentLast1DWTDMTDQTDYTD52w Range
Equity Futures
ES1S&P 5007,641.50 +0.53% o/n-1.04%-1.04%+1.88%+10.0%52w
NQ1Nasdaq 10029,321.00 +0.70% o/n-0.83%-0.58%-2.43%+14.2%52w
RTY1Russell 20002,909.90 +0.62% o/n-2.24%-2.27%-3.98%+15.6%52w
Rates
TU12Y Note4.38% +19.3bp 1d+17.5bp+20.5bp+51.9bp+94.5bp52w
TY110Y Note4.94% +10.7bp 1d+16.0bp+22.4bp+57.0bp+81.4bp52w
US1Long Bond5.36% +7.5bp 1d+11.5bp+15.5bp+50.1bp+54.8bp52w
Commodities
CL1WTI Crude99.20 -4.67% o/n+8.44%+18.9%+40.2%+71.2%52w
NG1Nat Gas2.80 -1.23% o/n-5.75%-2.91%-11.8%-29.4%52w
GC1Gold4,388.00 +0.64% o/n-0.94%-2.01%+9.09%+0.41%52w
Volatility
VIXCBOE VIX17.12 -4.04% day+17.8%+18.6%-3.00%+19.5%52w

Period returns from 1y daily closes (WTD = since prior Sunday close, MTD/QTD/YTD = since prior period-end close). Rates rows quote cash yields in bp (TU/TY/US → 2Y/10Y/30Y); “px” marks a price-quoted fallback. Grey cells repeat the prior column. Bars mark the last price in the 52-week range.

Opening Tone

Measured risk-on, but of the fragile kind. Front-month futures are firmly higher into the open — ES +0.54%, NQ +0.60%, RTY +0.59% as of 05:51 ET — yet the overnight story is a divergence, not a rally: Japan sold off hard (Nikkei -1.9%) as WTI's war premium met a surge in global bond yields, while US futures rebounded on Oracle's AI blowout and a report of Oman-brokered talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The single thing that matters today is the August CPI print at 8:30 ET, landing with a ~67%-priced Fed hike for next week and the 30-year Treasury at a post-2007 high of 5.36%. Oil retreating ~2.7% back under $100 helps; a hot core number against that backdrop does not.

Overnight Recap

Ranked drivers since the prior 6:00 PM ET close:

Oil's round trip — spike to a four-month high, then a talks-inspired retreat

Brent touched $109.97 overnight — highest since May — before retreating; WTI slid ~2.7% to ~$99.7 by early Friday after the FT reported Gulf foreign ministers will meet their Iranian counterpart Monday in an Oman-brokered push for a temporary deal on Hormuz shipping (Reuters, 04:16 ET; anchor, 05:51 ET). The week's ~13% crude surge — steepest since mid-July — followed Houthi seizure of Yemen's Red Sea port of Mocha and Iran's attack on 10 vessels near Hormuz after US strikes on five Iranian tankers. Why it matters: Monday's meeting is now the single biggest binary for the inflation trade.

The bond market did the equities' worrying for them

Global bonds buckled as surging oil inflamed inflation risk: the US 30-year yield hit 5.36%, a post-2007 peak, the 10-year sits near 4.95% after touching ~4.97%, and a $6B Treasury buyback disappointed traders expecting more (AFP, 04:31 ET). CME FedWatch pricing for a hike next week rose to ~67% from 62% before Thursday's data (Reuters, 22:36 ET). The long end is leading — the bond future complex shows the front anchored (TU1 -0.02%) while the long bond lags (US1 +0.06%): a bear-steepening profile that caps multiple expansion even on green index futures.

-0.02%+0.06%CMETU1US1

Asia took the shock; Europe is shrugging it off

The Nikkei fell as much as 3% intraday before closing -1.93% at 64,011.34, with Topix -0.65%, as WTI topped $100 and JGB 10-year yields rose ~7bp to 2.99%; the dollar briefly slipped below ¥154 in Tokyo before recovering to ~154.2 (Mainichi/Kyodo, ~01:00 ET). Europe opened the other way — Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5% early Friday (TradingEconomics, 03:44 ET) — though still heading for a sharp weekly decline. Converging theme: exporters-and-energy-price-takers under pressure, bourses with energy cover holding up.

-1.93%-0.65%+0.5%

Oracle's after-the-close blowout is carrying the US open

Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.92 crushed the $1.74 consensus on revenue +30% to $19.35B; cloud infrastructure (IaaS) grew 121% to $7.4B, total cloud +62% to $11.6B, and AI backlog (RPO) swelled to a record $664B after $30B of new AI cloud contracts. FY27 guidance rose to ≥$90B revenue against an $89.8B consensus (Bloomberg/Yahoo, 05:01 ET; Benzinga, 03:17 ET). Shares jumped ~7% in after-hours and held ~+4% near $159 premarket — the main prop under NQ's +0.60%.

+30%+62%+4%+0.60%

Adobe's soft guide cut the other way

Q3 numbers edged past consensus (revenue $6.76B vs $6.69B expected), but a forecast miss renewed fears that AI is displacing rather than feeding creative software; shares fell ~2.4% after hours (Bloomberg/Yahoo, 05:54 ET). The Oracle-versus-Adobe gap is the cleanest overnight read on where AI dollars are actually landing: infrastructure, not application layers — yet.

Diesel at a record is CPI's real-world prologue

The US national average diesel price passed $6/gallon for the first time ever (GasBuddy, via Reuters, 18:41 ET), squeezing the same cost channel August CPI will measure this morning.

Previous Session Context

Prior-session items caught by the freshness guard (context, not overnight news):

  • Thursday's regular session, per delayed closes quoted overnight: US cash was mixed-to-flat despite the crude spike — SPY -0.04%, QQQ -0.25%, DIA +0.02% (Benzinga, 01:22 ET). Notable S&P movers were energy-and-adjacent losers and defensive gainers: COO -14.7%, BKR -6.7%, FCX -6.6%, SWKS +9.8%, ELV +5.4% (MarketWatch, 05:54 ET).
  • Thursday's catalysts, wrapped after 6 PM: WTI settled +6.69% at $102.48 — first $100+ close since May — Brent +6.34% at $107.63 (Reuters via IDN, 00:00 ET); the ECB hiked 25bp and warned of extended inflation pressure; August PPI ran hot at 5.4% y/y headline with a benign 0.2% core m/m read (Mitrade; Benzinga, 01:22 ET).

Global Equity Movers

Asia, macro-first:

  • Japan: Nikkei -1.93% to 64,011.34 (briefly >3% lower, under 63,500 intraday) as JGB 10y +7bp to 2.99% and WTI topped $100; Topix -0.65% to 4,028.30; decliners led by nonferrous metals, electrics, and oil-products issues (Mainichi/Kyodo; AP, 00:59 ET).
  • Europe: Euro Stoxx 50 +0.5% in early trade, but on track for a sharp weekly decline (TradingEconomics, 03:44 ET).
  • US pre-market: Oracle +4% to ~$159 (after a ~7% after-hours spike) on the cloud/AI beat; Adobe -2.4% after hours on the soft guide; Kroger +0.6% after hours at $57.29 ahead of its before-the-open Q2 print (consensus $1.05 EPS on $34.56B revenue; Benzinga, 01:06 ET).
  • Single-stock extremes: Frequency Electronics (FEIM) surged ~30% after hours on record quarterly revenue of $23.5M, +70% y/y, with funded backlog at a record $129M (Benzinga, 01:01–02:00 ET window); CPI Card Group fell ~14.4% after hours on a 2.34M-share secondary offering by its private-equity holder; Thursday's speculative leaders TNON +117% and DBGI +81% show the retail-momentum tail still wagging.
  • Supply chain: TSMC's August sales rose 53.3% y/y (Benzinga, 01:22 ET) — the AI hardware complex's demand signal remains intact alongside Oracle's backlog number.

Rates, FX, and Commodities

Rates first, because they are the story: the US long bond led a global sovereign selloff to a post-2007 peak — 30-year at 5.36%, 10-year ~4.95% after an overnight high near 4.97% — while the front end held (TU1 -0.02% vs US1 +0.06%): bear steepening into a Fed meeting with hike odds at ~67% (CME FedWatch, via Reuters, 22:36 ET). The move is global: JGB 10y +7bp to 2.99%, bunds +17bp on the week, and gilts near 5.40% — multi-decade highs after UK GDP beat expectations and pushed GBP to $1.352. In FX, the dollar index held just above 99 (DXY ~99.04); EUR sat at $1.1605, and USD/JPY recovered to ~154.2 after dipping below ¥154 in Tokyo trade. Oil is the day's big cross-asset mover: WTI -2.7% to ~$99.7 overnight (anchor, 05:51 ET) after Thursday's +6.7% surge to $102.48, with Brent backing off $109.97 as the FT's GCC-Iran Hormuz-talks report took some war premium out; crude remains on track for its first weekly close above $100 since mid-May, up ~13% on the week. Natural gas slipped 1.1% to $2.804 after a 40 Bcf storage build. Gold futures eased 0.5% to ~$4,386 despite spot gold defending the $4,300 support overnight (+0.7% intraday) — a third straight weekly loss as rate expectations override the inflation hedge; silver traded at $64.08, platinum $1,800. Copper was quiet at $6.539 (-0.13%) on thin volume — 38% of the 65-day average (MarketWatch, 05:54 ET). VIX closed Thursday at ~17.7, +8.4% on the day, and futures' overnight rebound suggests modest easing into the open.

Today's Setup and Risk Map

ETEvent / AuctionCons.Prev
08:30USCore Inflation Rate MoM AUG—0.2%
08:30USCore Inflation Rate YoY AUG—2.4%
08:30USCPI AUG—334.85
08:30USCPI s.a AUG—334.14
08:30USInflation Rate MoM AUG—0.4%
08:30USInflation Rate YoY AUG—3.4%
10:00USMichigan Consumer Sentiment Prel SEP—51
10:00USMichigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel SEP—3.2%
10:00USMichigan Inflation Expectations Prel SEP—3.9%

Calendar (all times ET): August CPI at 8:30 — consensus +0.4% m/m headline (3.4% y/y) and +0.2% m/m core (2.3% y/y) per FXStreet and Benzinga previews — the last major data point before the Fed's September 15-16 meeting (blackout period; no scheduled speakers). September's preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment at 10:00. Kroger's Q2 call at 8:00, results before the open. Monday: the GCC-Iran meeting on Hormuz passage (FT) — the oil market's next binary. Polymarket puts a 64% probability on a higher S&P close today (Benzinga, 01:22 ET).

Futures levels to watch (05:51 ET): ES1 7,640 (+0.54%), NQ1 29,309 (+0.60%), RTY1 2,910 (+0.59%), TY1 106.39, CL1 $99.68, GC1 $4,386.

Scenarios: Bull — soft core CPI plus constructive Hormuz headlines: hike odds unwind toward a coin flip, oil's risk premium keeps bleeding, and the Oracle-led tech bid broadens. Base — in-line CPI: choppy, rangebound tape with tech outperformance cushioning energy-inflation angst; watch whether ES holds the overnight gains through the 10:00 Michigan print. Bear — hot core: hike odds jump well above 70%, the 10-year tests 5%, and the 5.36% long-bond anchor turns from context into catalyst.

Single biggest risk to the base case: a hot core CPI reading against a bond market already at post-2007 yield highs with a two-thirds-priced hike — the policy shock landing on top of the oil shock, with record diesel as the visible pass-through.

Earnings Calendar and Results

Earnings Calendar (deterministic — sourced from DoltHub + DuckDB warehouse):
Already reported (pre-open, BMO):
- KR (Before market open, $35B) — EPS cons 5.52 (YoY +6.0%)
- …plus 3 smaller-cap reporters (<$20B market cap) — micro-caps collapsed for readability.
Upcoming today (after close, AMC):
- …plus 3 smaller-cap reporters (<$20B market cap) — micro-caps collapsed for readability.
Tomorrow (2026-09-14):
- …plus 7 smaller-cap reporters (<$20B market cap) — micro-caps collapsed for readability.
Source: DoltHub earnings_calendar (local clone) + DuckDB warehouse market_cap. 7 reporters today, 1 ≥$20B.
Intelligence — Top Takeaways & Tape Divergencestap to expand

Pre-Market Intelligence Note

Date: 2026-09-11

Top Takeaways

Tape vs. News — Divergences

Crude ▼ -3.18% to $99.22 (MarketWatch ticker bar) vs. "Oil Tops $100" framing.

XLE Energy ▼ -0.55% on a day dominated by oil-inflation coverage.

Bond-market inflation repricing vs. collapsing equity vol.

Cash close vs. ETF proxies and futures.

News is silent on the tape's biggest single move: Russell 2000 ▼ -1.04%.

High-Impact Earnings

What's Coming Up

Narrated Articles

Adobe's earnings leave Wall Street wanting more (MarketWatch, IR 77.86). Adobe's results and, more importantly, its forecast failed to clear the bar, with the article's key line being "in this environment, you can't just meet" expectations. The read-through is that software names with AI-disruption risk get punished for in-line, not just for misses — position sizing on application-software exposure should assume a higher bar than consensus.

Nagel Signals ECB May Have to Hike Again to Tame Inflation (Bloomberg Economics, IR 76.88). The ECB may need mildly restrictive rates to bring prices down, per Nagel. Coming alongside a U.S.-led global bond selloff (10-Yr at 4.942%), this is a two-sided hawkish impulse for duration — euro rates risk is repricing higher just as the market has been treating the inflation impulse as past-peak.

The 'great grid upgrade' is off track (Guardian Business, IR 75.76). The £70bn programme to rewire the UK's electricity transmission network for clean power by 2030 is running over budget and behind schedule, and may cost consumers and businesses more in their bills than advertised. For positioning, it is a capex-slippage and energy-bill-inflation signal in a tape already pricing infrastructure and power costs as an inflation input.

Appendix · Sources & Data Qualitytap to expand

Market data: Front-month futures levels and overnight changes from the deterministic futures anchor (Yahoo chart API, as-of 05:51 ET Sep 11) and the pre-run market snapshot; Fed hike probabilities from CME FedWatch as cited by Reuters (22:36 ET); VIX ~17.7 is Thursday's close, not an overnight print; the 2-year yield level was not separately sourced — front-end read inferred from TU1 (flat).

Macro & policy: Reuters global-bonds wrap (via AOL syndication, ~04:16 ET); AFP cross-asset wrap (04:31 ET); Mitrade CPI/PPI preview; FXStreet/TalkMarkets DXY and CPI consensus; Newscord on gilts. Reuters and WSJ direct extraction was bot-blocked — syndicated copies used, a minor downgrade in fidelity, not in substance.

Companies: Oracle results from Bloomberg (via Yahoo, 05:01 ET) and Benzinga (03:17 ET) with guidance figures cross-checked between the two; Adobe from Bloomberg (via Yahoo, 05:54 ET); Kroger preview from Benzinga (01:06 ET) — actuals were not yet released at the 06:00 ET cutoff, so the $1.05 / $34.56B figures are consensus, not results; FEIM and PMTS from Benzinga via TradingView (01:00–02:00 ET); Apple foldable-market share from TrendForce via Benzinga (03:33 ET).

News wires: AP (via ClickOrlando, 00:59 ET), Mainichi/Kyodo Nikkei close, TradingEconomics European open (03:44 ET), Times of India and IDN Financials (Reuters-syndicated oil coverage, 22:03–00:00 ET), MarketWatch copper and movers sidebar (05:54 ET), GasBuddy diesel via Reuters (18:41 ET).

Data quality notes: Kroger's quarterly consensus differs across vintages ($1.05 quarterly vs $5.52 FY-basis in the deterministic calendar) — both are labeled, neither is a result. Asia coverage beyond Japan is thin this morning; no Korea/China/India index closes were captured. Europe's +0.5% Stoxx open is an early-read level, not a close. Oil's intraday Brent high ($109.97) and WTI's overnight low (~$99.6) come from different timestamps within the window and are labeled as such.

Source Articles

Here are the stocks to favor in the fourth quarter — and those you should avoid Stocks and Treasuries Find Relief Before CPI Print: Markets Wrap SpaceX is inching closer to this lofty $100 billion milestone Want Apple’s $1,999 foldable iPhone Duo? Here’s what T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon Anthropic details bad actors’ efforts to misuse its AI for bioweapons All the ways record-high diesel and rising gas prices are about to make your lif Gold Rises Ahead of US CPI Print That Could Shape Fed Rate Bets Adobe’s latest earnings leave Wall Street wanting more Oracle’s AI bet pays off as cloud momentum helps drive a rosier forecast Tencent-Backed Chipmaker Enflame Jumps 179% in Shanghai Debut US Backs Energy Projects in Philippines With Eye on China Taiwan’s No. 2 Makes Rare Italy Trip, Defying China Pressure Japan’s Digital Agency Hit by Unauthorized Access to Servers Asia Confronts New Inflation, Fiscal Threat as Oil Tops $100 Speed up electricity grid upgrade or else face higher bills, warns UK watchdog The ‘great grid upgrade’ is off track – ministers should spell out the risks for UK Big Business Urges Treasury to Cut Levies on Energy Bills Homes for sale in a national park in England – in pictures AI Helps UK Economy Unexpectedly Grow in Boost for Burnham Nagel Signals ECB May Have to Hike Again to Tame Inflation Chinese Chipmakers Become Billionaires Without Turning a Profit European SpaceX Rival Raises $450M to Build Rocket Engine Inflation Fears Grow as US Leads Global Bond Selloff Swedish Election Race Tightens Ahead of Sunday's Vote Bank of France Governor Says Economy in ‘Worrying’ Situation India-China Ties: How Trump’s Trade War Is Bringing Modi, Xi Closer Together Traditional portfolio diversification isn’t cutting it anymore. Here’s where to New battery-powered trains to ‘bring faster journeys to the north’ Berkeley Warns of Iran War Impact, Calls for Stamp Duty Reform Kotecki Sees Poland Rate Hikes if Inflation Tops 4% for Longer Gulf States Weigh Rare Meeting With Iran Next Week on Hormuz Bridgewater’s Jensen Says AI Will Kill People Before It’s Curbed Chery Plans UK Model Offensive After ‘Temu Range Rover’ Success Pressure grows on Burnham to commit to increasing statutory paternity leave OpenAI Weighs Slowing Cutting-Edge AI Development Why Bridgewater's CIO Says AI's Human Extinction Risk Is Real Lobito Corridor to Double Minerals Cargo After $300 Million Draw BRICS Finance Chiefs Call for Urgent IMF, World Bank Reform France Lowers 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 0.5% From 0.7% Novo to Disclose ‘Next Chapter’ at Sept. 15 Employee Event Ponar Weighs Warsaw IPO as Poland’s Defense Boom Draws Investors Economists See Fed Defying Expectations for Rate Hikes: Survey ‘Just worry upon worry’: Europe faces a bleak winter as supply shock pushes fact ‘Fresh from the roof’: the supermarket growing salad a few metres above the till France Abandons Plan to Narrow 2026 Deficit as Economy Stumbles Jim O’Neill Warns Burnham Against Higher Tax on Banks, Business India’s Top Court Seeks Timeline for Sugar, Fat Warning Labels China AI Star Moonshot Eyes $2 Billion Annualized Sales in 2026 Ex-City M&A Lawyer Pleads Not Guilty to Insider Trading Scott Bessent 'May Have Overplayed His Hand' Europe Struggles to Counter Russian Attacks Falling Short of War JD.com Prepares Remedy Tweaks in Bid for EU Ceconomy Approval Aareal Works With Alvarez & Marsal on SRT Amid Push for Growth Bridgewater investment chief says AI could wipe out humanity Oil price drops on hopes for Hormuz meeting between Iran and Gulf states; four U EssilorLuxottica Managers Defend Their CEO After Heir Lashes Out Iran Turns to BRICS Summit as US War Deepens Its Isolation India RBI Rejects Some Short Bond Bids As Cash Drain Fears Mount AI is Accelerating Drug Discovery: McKernan Senegal’s Debt Crisis Weighs On Its Long-Cherished Stability ECB's Nagel 'Concerned' About Rise of Far-Right Parties Higher Oil Prices Let Mexico Pull Back Billions in Pemex Support Why The United States’ Belated Critical Minerals Gambit Won’t Stop China AI Boom to Boost Southeast Asia’s LNG Demand FX option expiries for 11 September 10am New York cut Oil Prices Surge to Four-Month Highs as War Risks Mount UK July monthly GDP +0.4% vs 0.0% m/m expected Trading Went Around the Clock. Can Settlement Keep Up? U.S. Diesel Prices Top $6 a Gallon for First Time Ever US average diesel price passes $6 a gallon for the first time ever, GasBuddy say Iran gains stronger leverage as oil surges above $100, forcing urgent diplomatic What is the distribution of forecasts for the US CPI? Oil Prices Could Top $120 as Middle East Conflict Escalates Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis have completed the takeover of Bab el-Mandeb Strait Bitcoin trades at a major support ahead of the US CPI report. What to watch next China’s 70% EV Target Deals Another Blow to Oil Demand Gold falls back into the major $4300 support ahead of US CPI, as surging oil pri Bonds buckle, stocks fall as surging oil prices inflame inflation risks Global bonds buckle as surging oil prices inflame inflation risks; Brent retreat US closing movers recap: Wealthfront (WLTH) leads broad gainers +14.9% to $10.89 Oracle stock soars ~7% after hours on Q1 FY27 beat: IaaS revenue +121%, AI backl Brent Surges Above $107 as Middle East Conflict Fears Drive UK Bond Sell-Off Oil touches $107 per barrel as Hormuz remains choked for over six months Gold gains on softer oil prices, US inflation data in focus US August CPI lands tonight: after a 5.4% PPI shock, will the Fed hike on Septem Deep Learning of Robust Market Making under Regime-Switching Order Flow Entropic Value-at-Risk parity for tempered stable returns The Privacy Subsidy in Market Microstructure Hormuz tensions flare, Brent and WTI oil prices surge more than 6% Japan markets: Nikkei plunges nearly 3% below 63,500 intraday as oil, rate-hike Asian shares decline, tracking Wall Street losses; oil stays above $100 after hi Oil prices stay above $108 and Asian shares decline, tracking Wall Street losses FEIM Q1 FY2027 earnings call highlights: record revenue, surging backlog, debt-f Kroger gears up for Q2 print: Wall Street's most-accurate analysts trim targets Futures higher Friday: TSM August sales +53.3% y/y, core PPI benign (0.2%) despi Frequency Electronics (FEIM) climbs ~29.6% after hours on fiscal Q1 2027 beat — CPI Card Group (PMTS) tumbles ~14-15% after hours on 2.34M-share secondary offer Japan stocks lower at close: Nikkei 225 down 1.87%; Paper & Pulp, Transport, Com United States Dollar Index Holds Onto Gains Above 99 Ahead Of US CPI Data Oracle, Adobe and 3 stocks to watch heading into Friday (overnight wrap: ORCL +4 Apple's iPhone Duo could capture ~25% of the foldable market with ~5M shipments Global Economy Briefing: US 10-year Treasury at cycle-high 4.969% ahead of CPI; European stocks rise but head for sharp weekly declines (STOXX 50 +0.5%) Stocks tumble as oil and inflation worries fan rate hike bets Dollar holds gains as traders await US price data after oil jumps Oracle posts cloud sales that top estimates on surging AI demand; shares jump ~7 August's inflation report will be crucial for the Fed's interest rate decision Copper slips in early Friday trade after recent surge (HG00 continuous) Adobe forecast misses estimates, renewing fears about AI impact on software Dow set to open up ahead of crucial CPI inflation report; futures rebound Nikkei briefly falls over 3% as WTI tops $100 and bond yields surge; ends -1.93%

Market data: Polygon (cash/indices when keyed) + Yahoo Finance chart API (futures + cash fallback); Hyperliquid xyz (cross-check) · Snapshot generated 06:26 ET · 2026-09-11
BoltNews © 2026 · Generated 2026-09-11 · GitHub